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North Carolina (-7.5) @ East Carolina
My mathematical model has been going against East Carolina all season, but the line may have caught up with how bad this team is. The winless Pirates have averaged just 4.1 yards per play on offense (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and have given up 6.4 yppl on defense (to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). However, my math model has ECU keeping this game pretty close on the basis of a strong passing day. Starting quarterback Desmond Robinson has averaged a decent 5.6 yards per pass play (against teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppp on defense) and he is capable of putting up good numbers against a horrid North Carolina defensive secondary that has surrendered 9.7 yppp (to teams that average a combined 7.4 yppp on offense). Of course the Tarheels should be even better with their better than average attack (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense) going up against that horrible Pirates’ stop unit. My math model favors UNC by only 6 points in this game, but the road team is 25-7 ATS in the Tarheels’ last 32 games and East Carolina isn’t exactly trustworthy (5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games).
My mathematical model has been going against East Carolina all season, but the line may have caught up with how bad this team is. The winless Pirates have averaged just 4.1 yards per play on offense (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and have given up 6.4 yppl on defense (to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). However, my math model has ECU keeping this game pretty close on the basis of a strong passing day. Starting quarterback Desmond Robinson has averaged a decent 5.6 yards per pass play (against teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppp on defense) and he is capable of putting up good numbers against a horrid North Carolina defensive secondary that has surrendered 9.7 yppp (to teams that average a combined 7.4 yppp on offense). Of course the Tarheels should be even better with their better than average attack (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense) going up against that horrible Pirates’ stop unit. My math model favors UNC by only 6 points in this game, but the road team is 25-7 ATS in the Tarheels’ last 32 games and East Carolina isn’t exactly trustworthy (5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games).