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Va Tech (-18.0) versus Syracuse
Virginia Tech appears to be overrated, but it’s tough to trust Syracuse on the road against a better team. The Orangemen are a horrendous 2-17 ATS as a road underdog against a winning team (5-24 ATS if you go back further), but one of those wins was here in Blacksburg 2 years ago and that was a 22-14 straight up win as an 18 point underdog. Virginia Tech has made a habit out of starting strong out of the gate, but the pointspread tends to catch up with the Hokies around mid-season when conference play gets going. In fact, Virginia Tech is just 5-12-1 ATS in their history as a conference home favorite of more than 14 points, including just 3-10-1 ATS from game 6 on. Included in that record is that loss to Syracuse and the Hokies lost against to the Orangeman last season in triple overtime by a 42-50 count. While I’m sure Virginia Tech will be fired up to get their revenge, and while I’m a bit concerned with Syracuse’s history as a road underdog, I will have to favor the visiting Orangemen to stay within the big number. Syracuse has an outstanding offense (6.4 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl on defense) and they should be able to score a decent number of points against a Virginia Tech defense that is good, but not great (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). Virginia Tech’s offense is among the best in the nation (averaging 6.6 yppl against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense), but they prefer to run the football (59% of the time) and Syracuse is good defending the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.6 yprp on offense). The Hokies are still very likely to have better than average success running the football and they’ll have no trouble throwing the ball against a poor Syracuse secondary (6.7 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.0 yppp on offense), so I expect plenty of points for the home team. I just don’t think they’ll score enough to cover the inflated number against a very good Syracuse offense, despite the long history of failure for the Orange in this role. If you’re looking for some technical support for Syracuse you can take solace in the fact that 5-0 teams are just 12-31 ATS when favored by 7 points or more against a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher.
Virginia Tech appears to be overrated, but it’s tough to trust Syracuse on the road against a better team. The Orangemen are a horrendous 2-17 ATS as a road underdog against a winning team (5-24 ATS if you go back further), but one of those wins was here in Blacksburg 2 years ago and that was a 22-14 straight up win as an 18 point underdog. Virginia Tech has made a habit out of starting strong out of the gate, but the pointspread tends to catch up with the Hokies around mid-season when conference play gets going. In fact, Virginia Tech is just 5-12-1 ATS in their history as a conference home favorite of more than 14 points, including just 3-10-1 ATS from game 6 on. Included in that record is that loss to Syracuse and the Hokies lost against to the Orangeman last season in triple overtime by a 42-50 count. While I’m sure Virginia Tech will be fired up to get their revenge, and while I’m a bit concerned with Syracuse’s history as a road underdog, I will have to favor the visiting Orangemen to stay within the big number. Syracuse has an outstanding offense (6.4 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl on defense) and they should be able to score a decent number of points against a Virginia Tech defense that is good, but not great (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). Virginia Tech’s offense is among the best in the nation (averaging 6.6 yppl against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense), but they prefer to run the football (59% of the time) and Syracuse is good defending the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.6 yprp on offense). The Hokies are still very likely to have better than average success running the football and they’ll have no trouble throwing the ball against a poor Syracuse secondary (6.7 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.0 yppp on offense), so I expect plenty of points for the home team. I just don’t think they’ll score enough to cover the inflated number against a very good Syracuse offense, despite the long history of failure for the Orange in this role. If you’re looking for some technical support for Syracuse you can take solace in the fact that 5-0 teams are just 12-31 ATS when favored by 7 points or more against a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher.