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West Virginia (-18.0) versus Rutgers
Rutgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS and is clearly improved, but the linesmakers have caught up to that improvement and there is a little bit of value in going against the Scarlet Knights this week. I also like the match-up of West Virginia’s run-oriented attack going up against a smallish Rutgers’ defensive front that has a history of poor run defense. The Mountaineers have demolished Rutgers the last two years, winning by a combined score of 120-7 while racking up tons of yardage on the ground. West Virginia isn’t quite as good running the ball this year as they were with a more experienced offensive line last year, but they have averaged a very good 5.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that allow 4.2 yprp) and will have an easy time running against a Rutgers defense that has surrendered 5.6 yprp this season (to teams that average 4.7 yprp on offense) and 590 rush yards at 6.5 yprp the last two weeks to Navy and Virginia Tech. Rutgers doesn’t defend the pass well either (6.0 yards per pass play against teams that average 5.4 yppp), so Rasheed Marshall (6.1 yppp against teams that allow 6.2 yppp) should have pretty good success when he does have to throw. Rutgers is a much improved offensive team this year, averaging a respectable 5.2 yppl (against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense) and solid young quarterback Ryan Hart (6.7 yppp against teams that allow 6.6 yppp) could keep Rutgers within the big number by throwing against a mediocre West Virginia pass defense (5.9 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp), but the Knights will have very little success on the ground in this game (my math model predicts just 3.4 yprp). Overall, my math model favors West Virginia to cover the number and I certainly like the match-up for them this week. It’s possible that they could suffer a letdown after nearly upsetting Miami last week, but I’d still rather lay the points in this one.
Rutgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS and is clearly improved, but the linesmakers have caught up to that improvement and there is a little bit of value in going against the Scarlet Knights this week. I also like the match-up of West Virginia’s run-oriented attack going up against a smallish Rutgers’ defensive front that has a history of poor run defense. The Mountaineers have demolished Rutgers the last two years, winning by a combined score of 120-7 while racking up tons of yardage on the ground. West Virginia isn’t quite as good running the ball this year as they were with a more experienced offensive line last year, but they have averaged a very good 5.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that allow 4.2 yprp) and will have an easy time running against a Rutgers defense that has surrendered 5.6 yprp this season (to teams that average 4.7 yprp on offense) and 590 rush yards at 6.5 yprp the last two weeks to Navy and Virginia Tech. Rutgers doesn’t defend the pass well either (6.0 yards per pass play against teams that average 5.4 yppp), so Rasheed Marshall (6.1 yppp against teams that allow 6.2 yppp) should have pretty good success when he does have to throw. Rutgers is a much improved offensive team this year, averaging a respectable 5.2 yppl (against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense) and solid young quarterback Ryan Hart (6.7 yppp against teams that allow 6.6 yppp) could keep Rutgers within the big number by throwing against a mediocre West Virginia pass defense (5.9 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp), but the Knights will have very little success on the ground in this game (my math model predicts just 3.4 yprp). Overall, my math model favors West Virginia to cover the number and I certainly like the match-up for them this week. It’s possible that they could suffer a letdown after nearly upsetting Miami last week, but I’d still rather lay the points in this one.