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Michigan (pick) @ Minnesota
Unbeaten Minnesota gets their first real test of the season as they host a very good Michigan team that will be eager to bounce back from their loss at Iowa. The Gophers have rolled over 5 bad teams this year and squeaked past a decent Penn State squad on the road, so it’s uncertain how they’ll perform against a legitimately good team. There is no doubt that Minnesota has a good offense (6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppl on defense), but the Gophers managed just 4.8 yppp against Penn State, the only good defensive team that they’ve faced (Penn State allows 4.7 yppp on the season), and there is certainly a possibility that they’ll struggle against a Michigan defense that has yielded just 3.8 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense). Minnesota’s defense is also better than average on defense, giving up 4.0 yppl to teams that average 4.6 yppl on offense, but that unit will be tested for the first time by a Michigan offense that has averaged 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl) and has averaged 420 total yards at 5.4 yppl against better than average defensive teams Notre Dame, Oregon and Iowa. My math model favors Minnesota by 5 points in this game and Michigan is just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 road game (4-18-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 ATS as a dog and 1-15-1 ATS if foe is coming off a win). However, the Wolverines do qualify in a 41-15-2 ATS bounce-back situation that favors road teams that lost straight up as a road favorite in their last game and are facing a team off a spread win (there’s a bit more to that angle than that, but that’s the gist of it). Despite what my math model says, I’m still not sold on Minnesota and I certainly wouldn’t want to lay points with them. But, Michigan’s poor road favorite record makes it tough to lay points with them too. I’ll pass.
Unbeaten Minnesota gets their first real test of the season as they host a very good Michigan team that will be eager to bounce back from their loss at Iowa. The Gophers have rolled over 5 bad teams this year and squeaked past a decent Penn State squad on the road, so it’s uncertain how they’ll perform against a legitimately good team. There is no doubt that Minnesota has a good offense (6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppl on defense), but the Gophers managed just 4.8 yppp against Penn State, the only good defensive team that they’ve faced (Penn State allows 4.7 yppp on the season), and there is certainly a possibility that they’ll struggle against a Michigan defense that has yielded just 3.8 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense). Minnesota’s defense is also better than average on defense, giving up 4.0 yppl to teams that average 4.6 yppl on offense, but that unit will be tested for the first time by a Michigan offense that has averaged 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl) and has averaged 420 total yards at 5.4 yppl against better than average defensive teams Notre Dame, Oregon and Iowa. My math model favors Minnesota by 5 points in this game and Michigan is just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 road game (4-18-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 ATS as a dog and 1-15-1 ATS if foe is coming off a win). However, the Wolverines do qualify in a 41-15-2 ATS bounce-back situation that favors road teams that lost straight up as a road favorite in their last game and are facing a team off a spread win (there’s a bit more to that angle than that, but that’s the gist of it). Despite what my math model says, I’m still not sold on Minnesota and I certainly wouldn’t want to lay points with them. But, Michigan’s poor road favorite record makes it tough to lay points with them too. I’ll pass.
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