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Purdue (-13.0) versus Penn St.
Purdue is 12-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 3 to 24 points, but Penn State has covered 7 or 8 as a road underdog the last 3 seasons and they are much better offensively with the talented Michael Robinson at quarterback in place of the struggling Zack Mills. Penn State has been better than average offensively for the season (4.9 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 4.7 yppl), but they’ve averaged a healthy 5.6 yppl in their last 2 games with Robinson taking most of the snaps (against Minnesota and Wisconsin defensive units that combine to allow only 4.5 yppl combined for the season). Robinson will be tested again today by a very good Purdue defense that has yielded just 4.0 yppl (to teams that combine to average 4.5 yppl on offense), but the Nittany Lions have faced good defensive teams all season and should score around 20 points. Purdue’s offense has been only a bit better than average (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t see them scoring too many points against a solid Penn State defense that’s given up just 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense). Purdue should have good success running the football in this game (Penn State is a bit worse than average against the run), but the Nittany Lions are very tough to throw against (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average a combined 6.2 yppp on offense), so the Boilermakers’ aerial production will be limited. Purdue has been good to me this year, but Penn State is an underrated team and I’d prefer to take the points.
Purdue is 12-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 3 to 24 points, but Penn State has covered 7 or 8 as a road underdog the last 3 seasons and they are much better offensively with the talented Michael Robinson at quarterback in place of the struggling Zack Mills. Penn State has been better than average offensively for the season (4.9 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 4.7 yppl), but they’ve averaged a healthy 5.6 yppl in their last 2 games with Robinson taking most of the snaps (against Minnesota and Wisconsin defensive units that combine to allow only 4.5 yppl combined for the season). Robinson will be tested again today by a very good Purdue defense that has yielded just 4.0 yppl (to teams that combine to average 4.5 yppl on offense), but the Nittany Lions have faced good defensive teams all season and should score around 20 points. Purdue’s offense has been only a bit better than average (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t see them scoring too many points against a solid Penn State defense that’s given up just 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense). Purdue should have good success running the football in this game (Penn State is a bit worse than average against the run), but the Nittany Lions are very tough to throw against (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average a combined 6.2 yppp on offense), so the Boilermakers’ aerial production will be limited. Purdue has been good to me this year, but Penn State is an underrated team and I’d prefer to take the points.