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Ohio St. (-2.5) @ Wisconsin
This ought to be a pretty close contest between two good teams, but I’ll lean with Wisconsin to end the Buckeyes’ win streak based on a negative 24-66-1 ATS road favorite situation. The Buckeyes do get starting quarterback Craig Krenzel back, but they are still sub-par offensively (4.6 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and don’t figure to move the ball well in this game either against a solid Wisconsin defense that has yielded 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense. The Badgers’ offense has produced a better than average 5.7 yppl (against teams that allow an average of 5.4 yppl on defense) even with star back Anthony Davis missing about 3 ½ games total. Davis returned last week but carried the ball just 8 times while still nursing a sprained ankle, but freshman Booker Stanley ran for 119 yards on 24 carries against Penn State last week. Davis has averaged 6.7 ypr in his 69 carries, but his effectiveness is still in question and Ohio State should shut down the Badgers’ rushing attack if Davis is not close to being 100%. The Buckeyes not only shutdown the run (2.7 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.0 yprp on offense), but they also put a blanket over their opponents’ pass attack, allowing only 4.3 yards per pass play despite facing teams that combine to average 6.4 yppp on offense. My mathematical model favors Ohio State by 4 ½ points in this game, but the situation going against them is worth 4 ½ points and I’ll lean give the nod to the Badgers at home, where they are 8-2 ATS as a home dog (while Ohio State is 0-4 ATS on the road since the beginning of last season).
This ought to be a pretty close contest between two good teams, but I’ll lean with Wisconsin to end the Buckeyes’ win streak based on a negative 24-66-1 ATS road favorite situation. The Buckeyes do get starting quarterback Craig Krenzel back, but they are still sub-par offensively (4.6 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and don’t figure to move the ball well in this game either against a solid Wisconsin defense that has yielded 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense. The Badgers’ offense has produced a better than average 5.7 yppl (against teams that allow an average of 5.4 yppl on defense) even with star back Anthony Davis missing about 3 ½ games total. Davis returned last week but carried the ball just 8 times while still nursing a sprained ankle, but freshman Booker Stanley ran for 119 yards on 24 carries against Penn State last week. Davis has averaged 6.7 ypr in his 69 carries, but his effectiveness is still in question and Ohio State should shut down the Badgers’ rushing attack if Davis is not close to being 100%. The Buckeyes not only shutdown the run (2.7 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.0 yprp on offense), but they also put a blanket over their opponents’ pass attack, allowing only 4.3 yards per pass play despite facing teams that combine to average 6.4 yppp on offense. My mathematical model favors Ohio State by 4 ½ points in this game, but the situation going against them is worth 4 ½ points and I’ll lean give the nod to the Badgers at home, where they are 8-2 ATS as a home dog (while Ohio State is 0-4 ATS on the road since the beginning of last season).