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Oklahoma (-6.0) versus Texas (at Dallas)
The underdog in this series is 12-3 ATS the last 15 years (9-5-1 straight up) and I’ll look for that trend to continue this year. The Sooners are undoubtedly the best team in that nation right now, as quarterback Jason White leads an explosive offense (6.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense) while the unyielding defense has allowed just 3.9 yppl (against teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). However, the Longhorns are better than they’ve been in years now that Chris Simms has moved on to the NFL. Quarterbacks Chance Mock (the pocket passer) and Vince Young (the mobile multi-dimensional QB) have done an outstanding job leading an offense that has averaged 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.4 yppl on defense). Throwing the ball with success is nearly impossible against Oklahoma (3.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppp), so Mack Brown would be better off going with Young at quarterback since his running ability matches up better against a Sooners’ defense this is a bit vulnerable to the run (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.3 yprp on offense). The key for Texas in this game will be exploiting the Sooners’ rush defense and finding a way to stop Oklahoma’s aerial attack (8.5 yppp against teams that allow 6.5 yppp). The Longhorns have slowed down a few good pass attacks this season and have given up just 4.9 yppp to teams that combine to average 6.7 yppp on offense, so they are likely to limit the Sooners’ offense since Oklahoma’s sub-par rushing attack (4.0 yprp against teams that allow an average of 4.3 yprp) won’t do much damage against a solid Texas run defense (4.4 yprp against teams that average 4.9 yprp on offense). Overall, my math model favors Oklahoma by 5 ˝ points, which is right on the number, but the Sooners qualify in a negative 21-46 ATS game 6 angle and the history of the dog in this series lends support to Texas
The underdog in this series is 12-3 ATS the last 15 years (9-5-1 straight up) and I’ll look for that trend to continue this year. The Sooners are undoubtedly the best team in that nation right now, as quarterback Jason White leads an explosive offense (6.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense) while the unyielding defense has allowed just 3.9 yppl (against teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). However, the Longhorns are better than they’ve been in years now that Chris Simms has moved on to the NFL. Quarterbacks Chance Mock (the pocket passer) and Vince Young (the mobile multi-dimensional QB) have done an outstanding job leading an offense that has averaged 6.0 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.4 yppl on defense). Throwing the ball with success is nearly impossible against Oklahoma (3.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppp), so Mack Brown would be better off going with Young at quarterback since his running ability matches up better against a Sooners’ defense this is a bit vulnerable to the run (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.3 yprp on offense). The key for Texas in this game will be exploiting the Sooners’ rush defense and finding a way to stop Oklahoma’s aerial attack (8.5 yppp against teams that allow 6.5 yppp). The Longhorns have slowed down a few good pass attacks this season and have given up just 4.9 yppp to teams that combine to average 6.7 yppp on offense, so they are likely to limit the Sooners’ offense since Oklahoma’s sub-par rushing attack (4.0 yprp against teams that allow an average of 4.3 yprp) won’t do much damage against a solid Texas run defense (4.4 yprp against teams that average 4.9 yprp on offense). Overall, my math model favors Oklahoma by 5 ˝ points, which is right on the number, but the Sooners qualify in a negative 21-46 ATS game 6 angle and the history of the dog in this series lends support to Texas