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Colorado St. (pick) @ BYU
The Cougars have faced a schedule of good defensive teams, but their underrated offense ought to bust out a bit tonight. BYU has averaged only 4.8 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow just 4.7 yppl on defense and the Cougars should be able to run and throw the ball successfully against a Colorado State defense that’s surrendered 4.5 yards per rushing play and 7.0 yards per pass play to a schedule of teams that combine to average 4.0 yprp and 6.2 yppp on offense. With BYU’s offense likely to be clicking, it will up to their solid defensive unit (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) to slow down a potent Rams’ attack that has averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that allow 5.8 yppl on defense. BYU did a good job in limiting a good USC attack to just 4.6 yppl, so they have shown that they are capable of defending a good offense. Colorado State coach Sonny Lubick had wanted quarterback Bradlee Van Pelt to become more a pocket passer this year, but he unleashed his quarterback last week and Van Pelt ran for 154 yards on 13 carries and now has 330 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr (including sacks). Van Pelt is tough for any team to defend when he’s running out of the pocket, so there is certainly a risk involved with going against the Rams here, especially given their profitable history as an underdog or pick in regular season games (28-7-1 ATS). However, my math model favors BYU by 5 points and CSU qualifies in a negative 25-56-2 ATS situation that plays against road teams that are coming off 4 or more consecutive home games. My concern with backing BYU in this game is Colorado State coach Sonny Lubick’s history of success in the second half of the season – the Rams are 32-12 ATS from game 7 on since 1995.
p.s I hate BYU. Personal feelings on this one have Colorado State winning by 2 touchdowns.
The Cougars have faced a schedule of good defensive teams, but their underrated offense ought to bust out a bit tonight. BYU has averaged only 4.8 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow just 4.7 yppl on defense and the Cougars should be able to run and throw the ball successfully against a Colorado State defense that’s surrendered 4.5 yards per rushing play and 7.0 yards per pass play to a schedule of teams that combine to average 4.0 yprp and 6.2 yppp on offense. With BYU’s offense likely to be clicking, it will up to their solid defensive unit (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) to slow down a potent Rams’ attack that has averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that allow 5.8 yppl on defense. BYU did a good job in limiting a good USC attack to just 4.6 yppl, so they have shown that they are capable of defending a good offense. Colorado State coach Sonny Lubick had wanted quarterback Bradlee Van Pelt to become more a pocket passer this year, but he unleashed his quarterback last week and Van Pelt ran for 154 yards on 13 carries and now has 330 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr (including sacks). Van Pelt is tough for any team to defend when he’s running out of the pocket, so there is certainly a risk involved with going against the Rams here, especially given their profitable history as an underdog or pick in regular season games (28-7-1 ATS). However, my math model favors BYU by 5 points and CSU qualifies in a negative 25-56-2 ATS situation that plays against road teams that are coming off 4 or more consecutive home games. My concern with backing BYU in this game is Colorado State coach Sonny Lubick’s history of success in the second half of the season – the Rams are 32-12 ATS from game 7 on since 1995.
p.s I hate BYU. Personal feelings on this one have Colorado State winning by 2 touchdowns.