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Arkansas (-6.0) versus Auburn
It looks like Auburn has shaken their early season offensive woes, as quarterback Jason Campbell is returning to his good form of last season while the rushing attack is starting to produce better than average numbers. The difference is an offensive line that is starting to gel after allowing 13 sacks in their first 2 games while paving the way for just 2.9 yards per rushing play against USC and Georgia Tech (who combine to allow just 3.4 yprp for the season on defense). The Tigers have averaged a much better 5.8 yards per play in their last 2 Division 1A games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee (who allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but it’s still risky to assume that those two games are indicative of how they’ll perform in this game (as opposed to using all 4 of their Division 1A games as a basis for prediction). Arkansas has a good defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.3 yppl on offense) and my math model predicts 19 points when using all of Auburn’s games and 26 points using their last two games only. I’ll split the difference and call it 23 points for the Tigers. What is a bit more predictive is how Arkansas’ great offensive attack (6.1 yppl against teams that allow just 5.0 yppl on defense) will do against a good Tigers’ stop unit that’s permitted just 4.6 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense. Arkansas has performed well against good defensive teams in each of their last 3 games and they torched a similarly good Texas defense for 38 points on 438 yards at 5.6 yppl a few weeks ago, so they are certainly capable of putting up good numbers in this game. If I use all of Auburn’s offensive games, my mathematical model predicts a 12 point win for the Hogs in this game, but there’s a good chance that those first two games for the Tigers are not representative of how they are performing offensively now, so I will call for a closer contest while still leaning with Arkansas.
It looks like Auburn has shaken their early season offensive woes, as quarterback Jason Campbell is returning to his good form of last season while the rushing attack is starting to produce better than average numbers. The difference is an offensive line that is starting to gel after allowing 13 sacks in their first 2 games while paving the way for just 2.9 yards per rushing play against USC and Georgia Tech (who combine to allow just 3.4 yprp for the season on defense). The Tigers have averaged a much better 5.8 yards per play in their last 2 Division 1A games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee (who allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but it’s still risky to assume that those two games are indicative of how they’ll perform in this game (as opposed to using all 4 of their Division 1A games as a basis for prediction). Arkansas has a good defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.3 yppl on offense) and my math model predicts 19 points when using all of Auburn’s games and 26 points using their last two games only. I’ll split the difference and call it 23 points for the Tigers. What is a bit more predictive is how Arkansas’ great offensive attack (6.1 yppl against teams that allow just 5.0 yppl on defense) will do against a good Tigers’ stop unit that’s permitted just 4.6 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense. Arkansas has performed well against good defensive teams in each of their last 3 games and they torched a similarly good Texas defense for 38 points on 438 yards at 5.6 yppl a few weeks ago, so they are certainly capable of putting up good numbers in this game. If I use all of Auburn’s offensive games, my mathematical model predicts a 12 point win for the Hogs in this game, but there’s a good chance that those first two games for the Tigers are not representative of how they are performing offensively now, so I will call for a closer contest while still leaning with Arkansas.