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Dallas (-1.0) versus Philadelphia
The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s surprise teams, standing at 3-1 and on a 3 game win streak heading into this important NFC East showdown with the Eagles. Dallas has received recognition for an offense that ranks among the best in the league, but the impressive 5.6 yards per play that they’ve averaged is not as impressive when considering it was compiled against a schedule of teams that combines to allow an average of 5.4 yppl on defense. However, the Cowboys has still been a better than average offensive team and it will be interesting to see how they perform against the first good defense they will face. The Eagles have given up just 4.6 yppl (to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) despite numerous injuries to star players in their secondary (check status). While the Cowboys attack will be slowed, I don’t think that the Eagles’ sub-par offense (4.3 yppl against teams that allow an average of 4.5 yppl on defense) will have any better success against a good Dallas stop unit that’s yielded just 4.6 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. Philadelphia has not been able to throw the football (what’s new?), averaging a pathetic 3.7 yards per pass play (against teams that allow only 4.8 yppp), and the Cowboys are well equipped to defend against the Eagles’ good rushing attack (Philly averages 5.3 ypr but Dallas has given up only 2.7 ypr on defense). Dallas has clearly been better than the Eagles on both sides of the ball so far this season, but I give Philly a 2 point advantage in special teams and only favor Dallas by 2 points mathematically. Dallas does apply to a 28-71 ATS letdown situation in this game, but they also qualify in a very solid 202-112-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. Philadelphia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 69-154-4 ATS situation if they are favored or a pick in this game, but they qualify in a 173-88-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator (only 4-5 against the statistical indicator that favors Dallas). Overall, the technical analysis is a wash if Philly remains at pick or favored and it would favor Philly a bit if they become an underdog. So, I’ll call for Dallas to win by 1 in what looks like a good game to stay away from.
The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s surprise teams, standing at 3-1 and on a 3 game win streak heading into this important NFC East showdown with the Eagles. Dallas has received recognition for an offense that ranks among the best in the league, but the impressive 5.6 yards per play that they’ve averaged is not as impressive when considering it was compiled against a schedule of teams that combines to allow an average of 5.4 yppl on defense. However, the Cowboys has still been a better than average offensive team and it will be interesting to see how they perform against the first good defense they will face. The Eagles have given up just 4.6 yppl (to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) despite numerous injuries to star players in their secondary (check status). While the Cowboys attack will be slowed, I don’t think that the Eagles’ sub-par offense (4.3 yppl against teams that allow an average of 4.5 yppl on defense) will have any better success against a good Dallas stop unit that’s yielded just 4.6 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. Philadelphia has not been able to throw the football (what’s new?), averaging a pathetic 3.7 yards per pass play (against teams that allow only 4.8 yppp), and the Cowboys are well equipped to defend against the Eagles’ good rushing attack (Philly averages 5.3 ypr but Dallas has given up only 2.7 ypr on defense). Dallas has clearly been better than the Eagles on both sides of the ball so far this season, but I give Philly a 2 point advantage in special teams and only favor Dallas by 2 points mathematically. Dallas does apply to a 28-71 ATS letdown situation in this game, but they also qualify in a very solid 202-112-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. Philadelphia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 69-154-4 ATS situation if they are favored or a pick in this game, but they qualify in a 173-88-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator (only 4-5 against the statistical indicator that favors Dallas). Overall, the technical analysis is a wash if Philly remains at pick or favored and it would favor Philly a bit if they become an underdog. So, I’ll call for Dallas to win by 1 in what looks like a good game to stay away from.
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