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New Orleans (-5.5) versus Chicago
The Bears are due for a letdown after beating the Raiders last week at home. In fact, Chicago qualifies in a very negative 38-98-4 ATS road underdog letdown situation. The Bears are also not nearly as good as the Saints, who aren’t bad statistically despite their 1-4 record. New Orleans has averaged a decent 5.2 yards per play on offense (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and their attack should work against a Chicago stop unit that’s a bit worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) and has trouble defending the run (5.1 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.6 ypr). The Saints have averaged a robust 5.7 yppl the last two weeks against the Colts and Panthers and with Duece McAllister (4.6 ypr) providing a consistent run threat it will be easier for Aaron Brooks to throw the ball today. Chicago’s offense has done a good job running the football, as Anthony Thomas has reemerged as a threat this season (301 yards at 5.9 ypr) and Kordell Stewart has added 169 yards at 5.1 ypr, but the Bears are horrible throwing it (3.7 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.7 yppp on defense) and are bad overall offensively (4.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl). New Orleans does a decent job defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that combine to average 3.8 ypr on offense) and Stewart doesn’t have the receivers to take advantage of the Saints’ sub-par pass defense (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp). My math model favors New Orleans by 9 ½ points in this game and the Bears are in a letdown situation. However, the Saints are not very trustworthy as big favorites (2-10 ATS when favored by 5 points or more since 2001, but 1-0 this year) and teams with losing records that allow an average of 25 points or more are just 31-53-1 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. That, and the Saints’ plethora of defensive injuries, will keep me off the Saints as a Best Bet, but I will certainly favor New Orleans based on the line value.
The Bears are due for a letdown after beating the Raiders last week at home. In fact, Chicago qualifies in a very negative 38-98-4 ATS road underdog letdown situation. The Bears are also not nearly as good as the Saints, who aren’t bad statistically despite their 1-4 record. New Orleans has averaged a decent 5.2 yards per play on offense (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and their attack should work against a Chicago stop unit that’s a bit worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) and has trouble defending the run (5.1 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.6 ypr). The Saints have averaged a robust 5.7 yppl the last two weeks against the Colts and Panthers and with Duece McAllister (4.6 ypr) providing a consistent run threat it will be easier for Aaron Brooks to throw the ball today. Chicago’s offense has done a good job running the football, as Anthony Thomas has reemerged as a threat this season (301 yards at 5.9 ypr) and Kordell Stewart has added 169 yards at 5.1 ypr, but the Bears are horrible throwing it (3.7 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.7 yppp on defense) and are bad overall offensively (4.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl). New Orleans does a decent job defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that combine to average 3.8 ypr on offense) and Stewart doesn’t have the receivers to take advantage of the Saints’ sub-par pass defense (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp). My math model favors New Orleans by 9 ½ points in this game and the Bears are in a letdown situation. However, the Saints are not very trustworthy as big favorites (2-10 ATS when favored by 5 points or more since 2001, but 1-0 this year) and teams with losing records that allow an average of 25 points or more are just 31-53-1 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. That, and the Saints’ plethora of defensive injuries, will keep me off the Saints as a Best Bet, but I will certainly favor New Orleans based on the line value.
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