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Indy (-5.0) versus Carolina
The Colts may have a tough time getting up for this game after their record breaking Monday night comeback win in Tampa on Monday night. But, Indy does qualify in a solid 72-37-2 ATS home momentum situation that is based on extending a win streak with an upset road win. The Panthers, however, qualify in an incredible 51-10-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their good rushing offense and the Colts’ bad rush defense. It’s that match-up that could spring the upset in this game, as the conservative Panthers offense, running 57% of the time at 4.6 ypr (against teams that allow 3.9 ypr on defense), should have no trouble gobbling up yardage against a soft Indianapolis defensive front that has surrendered 4.7 ypr to a schedule of poor running teams that combine to average just 3.5 ypr on offense for the season. The Panthers probably won’t have much success throwing the football with a below average quarterback (Delhomme has averaged just 5.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.3 yppp) going up against a good Colts’ pass defense (5.7 yppp against teams that combine to average 6.3 yppp on offense). I’ll look for Carolina to have better than average production offensively in this game and hope that a better than average Panthers’ pass defense (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp on offense) can contain a hot Peyton Manning (7.3 yppp against teams that allow 5.8 yppp). The Colts don’t have much a rushing attack even with Edgerran James in the lineup (he’s questionable with a sore back), so it will up to Manning to continue to move the ball through the air. I’d rather have Carolina plus the points in this ballgame.
The Colts may have a tough time getting up for this game after their record breaking Monday night comeback win in Tampa on Monday night. But, Indy does qualify in a solid 72-37-2 ATS home momentum situation that is based on extending a win streak with an upset road win. The Panthers, however, qualify in an incredible 51-10-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their good rushing offense and the Colts’ bad rush defense. It’s that match-up that could spring the upset in this game, as the conservative Panthers offense, running 57% of the time at 4.6 ypr (against teams that allow 3.9 ypr on defense), should have no trouble gobbling up yardage against a soft Indianapolis defensive front that has surrendered 4.7 ypr to a schedule of poor running teams that combine to average just 3.5 ypr on offense for the season. The Panthers probably won’t have much success throwing the football with a below average quarterback (Delhomme has averaged just 5.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.3 yppp) going up against a good Colts’ pass defense (5.7 yppp against teams that combine to average 6.3 yppp on offense). I’ll look for Carolina to have better than average production offensively in this game and hope that a better than average Panthers’ pass defense (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp on offense) can contain a hot Peyton Manning (7.3 yppp against teams that allow 5.8 yppp). The Colts don’t have much a rushing attack even with Edgerran James in the lineup (he’s questionable with a sore back), so it will up to Manning to continue to move the ball through the air. I’d rather have Carolina plus the points in this ballgame.
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