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Cleveland (-3.0) versus Oakland
The Raiders are simply not a good team right now. The offense has been hurt by the absence of WR Jerry Porter, who made defenses respect the long ball. Without Porter, teams have been able to focus on the Raiders’ underneath pass routes and the offense has stalled. Oakland has averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on defense) and they’ve managed just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl). Oakland has been good on the ground and Cleveland has been poor against the run (4.9 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense), but the Browns have been outstanding at defending the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp on offense). If Oakland is smart, they’ll establish the run more than they’ve been doing this season (they’ve run just 34% of the time), which could open up passing opportunities for them. Oakland’s defense has been hit with injuries and they’ve surrendered a porous 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense). That unit may have trouble with a Cleveland offense that’s been just average overall this season (4.5 yppl against teams that allow only 4.6 yppl on defense), but has been sparked by the return of last year’s starting quarterback Tim Couch to the lineup. Starting quarterback Kelly Holcomb could be ready to play this week, but Couch could get the start anyway based on his very strong performances the last two weeks (7.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow only 5.4 yppp). Overall, I certainly think the Browns are the better team, but teams that win straight up as an underdog of 6 points or more against a division foe are only 35-72-4 ATS the next week if facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or less. While that situation would normally merit a letdown, I don’t really think they’ll overlook the 2-3 Raiders. However, Oakland qualifies in a very strong 173-88-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in games after a loss when not laying more than 2 points, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games straight up this season. I like the Browns based on fundamentals but the technical analysis is convincingly in Oakland’s favor.
The Raiders are simply not a good team right now. The offense has been hurt by the absence of WR Jerry Porter, who made defenses respect the long ball. Without Porter, teams have been able to focus on the Raiders’ underneath pass routes and the offense has stalled. Oakland has averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on defense) and they’ve managed just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl). Oakland has been good on the ground and Cleveland has been poor against the run (4.9 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense), but the Browns have been outstanding at defending the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp on offense). If Oakland is smart, they’ll establish the run more than they’ve been doing this season (they’ve run just 34% of the time), which could open up passing opportunities for them. Oakland’s defense has been hit with injuries and they’ve surrendered a porous 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense). That unit may have trouble with a Cleveland offense that’s been just average overall this season (4.5 yppl against teams that allow only 4.6 yppl on defense), but has been sparked by the return of last year’s starting quarterback Tim Couch to the lineup. Starting quarterback Kelly Holcomb could be ready to play this week, but Couch could get the start anyway based on his very strong performances the last two weeks (7.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow only 5.4 yppp). Overall, I certainly think the Browns are the better team, but teams that win straight up as an underdog of 6 points or more against a division foe are only 35-72-4 ATS the next week if facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or less. While that situation would normally merit a letdown, I don’t really think they’ll overlook the 2-3 Raiders. However, Oakland qualifies in a very strong 173-88-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in games after a loss when not laying more than 2 points, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games straight up this season. I like the Browns based on fundamentals but the technical analysis is convincingly in Oakland’s favor.
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