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Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Washington
I was all set to make the Redskins a Best Bet this week and then the Bucs blew a 21 point lead with 4 minutes left on Monday night and suddenly come into this game off a loss. The Bucs are 22-4 ATS the week following a loss when not favored by 5 points or more and Jon Gruden’s teams are 28-11 ATS in his career after a game in which his team either lost straight up or lost to the spread. Despite those team and coaching trends, I will still favor the Redskins as a dog in this game based on some very strong statistical match-up and statistical profile indicators with records of 196-99-13 ATS, 75-33-4 ATS, and 89-33-7 ATS. Washington also qualifies in a solid 108-53-5 ATS home underdog (or pick) scheduling angle. I should point out that the Bucs apply to a 202-126-12 ATS contrary angle, but the technical analysis favors Washington overall – as does my math model. Tampa Bay’s defense was exposed in the second half by the Colts on Monday night and it’s tough to say if that was a fluke or not, but I’m sure Steve Spurrier will be studying that tape for clues. Whether his young quarterback Patrick Ramsey is capable of exploiting any weakness Spurrier may find is the question. Washington has averaged a mediocre 6.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that allow a combined 6.2 yppp on defense), but the Redskins are a bit better than average offensively overall (5.3 yards per play against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) thanks to a good rushing attack that has averaged 4.2 ypr against teams that combine to allow only 3.8 ypr on defense. Tampa Bay is better than average against both the run and the pass and they’ve still given up just 4.5 yppl on the season (against teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense), despite last week’s breakdowns. Tampa’s average offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) will be up against a solid Redskins’ stop unit that has yielded 4.8 yppl this season (against teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Redskins by a point in this game and I’ll lean with Washington based on the general situations and indicators even though Tampa Bay’s history of bouncing back worries me.
I was all set to make the Redskins a Best Bet this week and then the Bucs blew a 21 point lead with 4 minutes left on Monday night and suddenly come into this game off a loss. The Bucs are 22-4 ATS the week following a loss when not favored by 5 points or more and Jon Gruden’s teams are 28-11 ATS in his career after a game in which his team either lost straight up or lost to the spread. Despite those team and coaching trends, I will still favor the Redskins as a dog in this game based on some very strong statistical match-up and statistical profile indicators with records of 196-99-13 ATS, 75-33-4 ATS, and 89-33-7 ATS. Washington also qualifies in a solid 108-53-5 ATS home underdog (or pick) scheduling angle. I should point out that the Bucs apply to a 202-126-12 ATS contrary angle, but the technical analysis favors Washington overall – as does my math model. Tampa Bay’s defense was exposed in the second half by the Colts on Monday night and it’s tough to say if that was a fluke or not, but I’m sure Steve Spurrier will be studying that tape for clues. Whether his young quarterback Patrick Ramsey is capable of exploiting any weakness Spurrier may find is the question. Washington has averaged a mediocre 6.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that allow a combined 6.2 yppp on defense), but the Redskins are a bit better than average offensively overall (5.3 yards per play against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) thanks to a good rushing attack that has averaged 4.2 ypr against teams that combine to allow only 3.8 ypr on defense. Tampa Bay is better than average against both the run and the pass and they’ve still given up just 4.5 yppl on the season (against teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense), despite last week’s breakdowns. Tampa’s average offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.3 yppl) will be up against a solid Redskins’ stop unit that has yielded 4.8 yppl this season (against teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Overall, my math model favors the Redskins by a point in this game and I’ll lean with Washington based on the general situations and indicators even though Tampa Bay’s history of bouncing back worries me.