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Denver (-6.5) versus Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a better team than they’ve shown this season and they’ll play this game with maximum intensity to avoid slipping to 2-4 on the season. The Steelers are 2-3 despite having a better than average offense (5.1 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense) and a good defense that’s given up just 4.4 yppl to teams that combine to average 4.9 yppl on offense. Pittsburgh was in a very negative technical situation last week and they certainly came out flat in their 13-33 home loss to Cleveland, but the Steelers are in a much better situation today, as teams that lose straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points are a solid 108-61-6 ATS if they are an underdog the next week. Pittsburgh applies to a very strong 87-29-5 ATS subset of that angle and the Steelers are also 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or more since 2000. The problem with play Pittsburgh is a motivated Denver team that is 18-5-2 ATS in games following a loss in recent years, including 12-1-1 ATS at home after a setback. Overall, I feel the technical analysis favors the Steelers a bit and with both teams motivated by losses, I’d prefer to take the generous points in a game between two pretty evenly matched teams. Check the status of Denver quarterback Jake Plummer, who is listed as questionable as of Wednesday night. I don’t see much, if any, drop in production with backup Steve Beuerlein at quarterback for Denver.
Pittsburgh is a better team than they’ve shown this season and they’ll play this game with maximum intensity to avoid slipping to 2-4 on the season. The Steelers are 2-3 despite having a better than average offense (5.1 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense) and a good defense that’s given up just 4.4 yppl to teams that combine to average 4.9 yppl on offense. Pittsburgh was in a very negative technical situation last week and they certainly came out flat in their 13-33 home loss to Cleveland, but the Steelers are in a much better situation today, as teams that lose straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points are a solid 108-61-6 ATS if they are an underdog the next week. Pittsburgh applies to a very strong 87-29-5 ATS subset of that angle and the Steelers are also 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or more since 2000. The problem with play Pittsburgh is a motivated Denver team that is 18-5-2 ATS in games following a loss in recent years, including 12-1-1 ATS at home after a setback. Overall, I feel the technical analysis favors the Steelers a bit and with both teams motivated by losses, I’d prefer to take the generous points in a game between two pretty evenly matched teams. Check the status of Denver quarterback Jake Plummer, who is listed as questionable as of Wednesday night. I don’t see much, if any, drop in production with backup Steve Beuerlein at quarterback for Denver.
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