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Utah (-2.0) UNLV
The Utes are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season and I don’t see a reason to buck them this week. Utah’s offense is certainly better with Alex Smith at quarterback the last 4 games, as he’s averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 6.4 yppp) without throwing an interception. The Utes don’t have a very good rush attack and they’ve averaged only a modest 5.4 yppl with Smith as the starter (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense), so I don’t expect them to score too many points against a good UNLV defense that’s yielded just 4.9 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.7 yppl on offense. The Rebels have struggled offensively, averaging just 4.6 yppl (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t expect them bust out today against a solid Utah stop unit that’s permitted 5.3 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.6 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Utah by 4 ½ points, so I’ll lean with the Utes to keep their spread record perfect – although the line is starting to catch up with them.
My prediction?: Utah 26 UNLV 17
The Utes are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season and I don’t see a reason to buck them this week. Utah’s offense is certainly better with Alex Smith at quarterback the last 4 games, as he’s averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 6.4 yppp) without throwing an interception. The Utes don’t have a very good rush attack and they’ve averaged only a modest 5.4 yppl with Smith as the starter (against teams that allow 5.3 yppl on defense), so I don’t expect them to score too many points against a good UNLV defense that’s yielded just 4.9 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.7 yppl on offense. The Rebels have struggled offensively, averaging just 4.6 yppl (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t expect them bust out today against a solid Utah stop unit that’s permitted 5.3 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.6 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Utah by 4 ½ points, so I’ll lean with the Utes to keep their spread record perfect – although the line is starting to catch up with them.
My prediction?: Utah 26 UNLV 17