Tweet
Purdue (-1.0) @ Wisconson
Purdue is a better team than Wisconsin, even with the Badgers’ star running back Anthony Davis back in action (he practiced last week but didn’t play, but should play this week). However, the Boilermakers apply to the same negative 33-89-1 ATS road letdown situation that applied to Ohio State last week in their loss here in Madison. With Davis in the lineup, the Badgers are better than average both running and throwing the football (they’ve been only average running it without him) and they’ve averaged 5.7 yards per play overall this year (against teams that combine to allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). Purdue has an outstanding run defense (2.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.1 yprp on offense) so I don’t expect the Badgers to do much damage on the ground even if Davis is fully healthy. However, Badgers’ quarterback Jim Sorgi is more than capable of picking on a questionable Purdue pass defense. The Boilermakers have given up only 4.9 yards per pass play, but they’ve had the benefit of facing teams that combine to average only 5.2 yppp on offense. Purdue allowed 7.3 yppp in two games against better than average passing teams (Bowling Green and Wake Forest: both average 6.8 yppp on offense for the season), so Wisconsin should be able to have good aerial success in this game. Purdue’s offense has been just average this season (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) and they should only have average production today against a mediocre Wisconsin stop unit that’s surrendered 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.1 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Purdue by 1 point - if Davis if fully healthy and gets his normal bulk of the work – or by 6 points if Davis doesn’t play at all for Wisconsin. I’m assuming that Davis will play and carry the ball about 20 times or so, and I’m going to lean with Wisconsin based on the situation against Purdue.
My perdiction?: Wisconsin 27 Purdue 21
Purdue is a better team than Wisconsin, even with the Badgers’ star running back Anthony Davis back in action (he practiced last week but didn’t play, but should play this week). However, the Boilermakers apply to the same negative 33-89-1 ATS road letdown situation that applied to Ohio State last week in their loss here in Madison. With Davis in the lineup, the Badgers are better than average both running and throwing the football (they’ve been only average running it without him) and they’ve averaged 5.7 yards per play overall this year (against teams that combine to allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). Purdue has an outstanding run defense (2.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that average 4.1 yprp on offense) so I don’t expect the Badgers to do much damage on the ground even if Davis is fully healthy. However, Badgers’ quarterback Jim Sorgi is more than capable of picking on a questionable Purdue pass defense. The Boilermakers have given up only 4.9 yards per pass play, but they’ve had the benefit of facing teams that combine to average only 5.2 yppp on offense. Purdue allowed 7.3 yppp in two games against better than average passing teams (Bowling Green and Wake Forest: both average 6.8 yppp on offense for the season), so Wisconsin should be able to have good aerial success in this game. Purdue’s offense has been just average this season (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) and they should only have average production today against a mediocre Wisconsin stop unit that’s surrendered 5.0 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.1 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Purdue by 1 point - if Davis if fully healthy and gets his normal bulk of the work – or by 6 points if Davis doesn’t play at all for Wisconsin. I’m assuming that Davis will play and carry the ball about 20 times or so, and I’m going to lean with Wisconsin based on the situation against Purdue.
My perdiction?: Wisconsin 27 Purdue 21
Comment