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Texas (-16.5) @ Iowa State
Texas will be in a nasty mood today after getting whipped 13-65 by Oklahoma last week. The Longhorns have covered the spread 10 consecutive times in regular season games following a loss and they are 13-0 ATS in regular season games as a favorite of 13 points or more after a loss going back a ways. I have every reason to believe that those trends will continue today, as Texas fans have something to be excited about with the mobile Vince Young now at quarterback. Young threw 2 interceptions against Oklahoma last week, but he also 5.1 yards per pass play against the Sooner (who allow only 3.5 yppp on defense for the season) and ran 13 times for 145 yards (not including sacks). For the season Young has accounted for 323 yards on 45 pass plays (7.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow only 4.9 yppp on defense) and ran for 434 yards on 42 rushes (not including sacks). That’s 757 yards on 87 plays for 8.7 yards per play and most of that came against the good defenses of Kansas State and Oklahoma the last two weeks. Former starter Chance Mock, by comparison, has averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per play running and passing, but did so against a softer schedule of opponents. Texas has averaged 5.9 yppl overall (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense) and they’ll be considerably better with Young getting most of the snaps. Iowa State’s defense isn’t as bad as they look (6.5 yppl allowed), since they’ve faced a schedule of good offensive teams that combine to average 6.1 yppl on offense, but they are still a below average defense and won’t have an answer for Young. Iowa State’s offense is pretty good, averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense, but they won’t do much damage against a good Longhorns’ stop unit that’s allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.9 yppl on offense (despite giving up 7.8 yppl last week). Texas looks like the right side here given their history of bouncing back from losses.
My perdiction?: Texas 41 Iowa State 10
Texas will be in a nasty mood today after getting whipped 13-65 by Oklahoma last week. The Longhorns have covered the spread 10 consecutive times in regular season games following a loss and they are 13-0 ATS in regular season games as a favorite of 13 points or more after a loss going back a ways. I have every reason to believe that those trends will continue today, as Texas fans have something to be excited about with the mobile Vince Young now at quarterback. Young threw 2 interceptions against Oklahoma last week, but he also 5.1 yards per pass play against the Sooner (who allow only 3.5 yppp on defense for the season) and ran 13 times for 145 yards (not including sacks). For the season Young has accounted for 323 yards on 45 pass plays (7.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow only 4.9 yppp on defense) and ran for 434 yards on 42 rushes (not including sacks). That’s 757 yards on 87 plays for 8.7 yards per play and most of that came against the good defenses of Kansas State and Oklahoma the last two weeks. Former starter Chance Mock, by comparison, has averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per play running and passing, but did so against a softer schedule of opponents. Texas has averaged 5.9 yppl overall (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense) and they’ll be considerably better with Young getting most of the snaps. Iowa State’s defense isn’t as bad as they look (6.5 yppl allowed), since they’ve faced a schedule of good offensive teams that combine to average 6.1 yppl on offense, but they are still a below average defense and won’t have an answer for Young. Iowa State’s offense is pretty good, averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense, but they won’t do much damage against a good Longhorns’ stop unit that’s allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.9 yppl on offense (despite giving up 7.8 yppl last week). Texas looks like the right side here given their history of bouncing back from losses.
My perdiction?: Texas 41 Iowa State 10
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