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USC (-8.0) @ Notre Dame
This looks like a good game to stay away from. Both teams are actually in negative situations and my math model favors USC by 7 points, which is very close to the pointspread. The Irish are coming off a big win at Pittsburgh as a 9 point underdog, but they qualify in a negative 56-103-1 ATS underdog letdown situation because of that win. USC, meanwhile, applies to a negative 25-61-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. The road favorite is 4-2 ATS when the two angles intersect, so it appears that the angle going against Notre Dame may be a bit stronger. USC has been a pretty good road team under coach Pete Carroll (10-4 ATS), but the Irish have a long history of success as a home underdog, going 11-2-1 ATS in that role with a win last year against Michigan. USC is clearly the superior team, but Notre Dame isn’t as bad offensively at it appears. The Irish have averaged only 4.1 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced a schedule of good defensive teams that combine to allow an average of just 4.4 yppl on defense, and have been better since Brady Quinn took over at quarterback. Quinn’s numbers aren’t very good (4.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.0 yppp), but the Irish rushing attack exploded last week against Pittsburgh (368 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play) and they are now averaging 4.6 yprp for the season against teams that allow 3.9 yprp on defense. The problem for Notre Dame in this game is a Trojans’ defense that defends the run well (3.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.2 yprp on offense). The Irish will probably have only average success running the football and I don’t expect Quinn to do much damage against a USC defense that is a bit better than average defending the pass (5.2 yppp against teams that average 5.4 yppp on offense). USC’s offense is very good (6.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense with QB Leinart in the game), but Notre Dame’s defense is even better (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense) and they’ve gotten better recently, giving up only 3.7 yppl in their last 3 games to Michigan State, Purdue and Pittsburgh – who combine to average 5.6 yppl on offense for the season. My math model favors USC by 7 points in this game and the angles slightly favor USC, so I recommend passing on this one.
My prediction?: USC 31 Notre Dame 24
This looks like a good game to stay away from. Both teams are actually in negative situations and my math model favors USC by 7 points, which is very close to the pointspread. The Irish are coming off a big win at Pittsburgh as a 9 point underdog, but they qualify in a negative 56-103-1 ATS underdog letdown situation because of that win. USC, meanwhile, applies to a negative 25-61-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. The road favorite is 4-2 ATS when the two angles intersect, so it appears that the angle going against Notre Dame may be a bit stronger. USC has been a pretty good road team under coach Pete Carroll (10-4 ATS), but the Irish have a long history of success as a home underdog, going 11-2-1 ATS in that role with a win last year against Michigan. USC is clearly the superior team, but Notre Dame isn’t as bad offensively at it appears. The Irish have averaged only 4.1 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced a schedule of good defensive teams that combine to allow an average of just 4.4 yppl on defense, and have been better since Brady Quinn took over at quarterback. Quinn’s numbers aren’t very good (4.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.0 yppp), but the Irish rushing attack exploded last week against Pittsburgh (368 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play) and they are now averaging 4.6 yprp for the season against teams that allow 3.9 yprp on defense. The problem for Notre Dame in this game is a Trojans’ defense that defends the run well (3.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.2 yprp on offense). The Irish will probably have only average success running the football and I don’t expect Quinn to do much damage against a USC defense that is a bit better than average defending the pass (5.2 yppp against teams that average 5.4 yppp on offense). USC’s offense is very good (6.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense with QB Leinart in the game), but Notre Dame’s defense is even better (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense) and they’ve gotten better recently, giving up only 3.7 yppl in their last 3 games to Michigan State, Purdue and Pittsburgh – who combine to average 5.6 yppl on offense for the season. My math model favors USC by 7 points in this game and the angles slightly favor USC, so I recommend passing on this one.
My prediction?: USC 31 Notre Dame 24
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