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Arkansas (-5.0) versus Florida
Arkansas’ upset loss to Auburn, combined with Florida’s upset win at LSU, has given us plenty of line value on the side of the Hogs this week. Florida was in a very strong 50-10 ATS situation last week, so I wouldn’t make too much of their win, especially since they were out-played 4.4 yards per play to 5.0 yppl for LSU. Arkansas, meanwhile, out-gained a good Auburn team 5.1 yppl to 4.6 yppl and had two long touchdown runs called back by penalty. So, last week’s results really shouldn’t take on too much weight and Arkansas is a much better team based on their level of play for the whole season so far. The Razorbacks have been very good offensively, averaging 5.9 yppl against a schedule of teams that combines to allow just 5.1 yppl on defense, and they should have no trouble moving the ball against a Gators’ defense that is just a bit better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Arkansas is only a bit better than Florida defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, but the Gators’ offense isn’t close to being as good as the Hogs’ attack. Florida’s freshman quarterback Chris Leak has been just mediocre, averaging 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.2 yppp on defense, and the Gators have averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play in his 3 starts (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense). Overall, my math model favors Arkansas by 12 ½ points in this game, but the Razorbacks sadly apply to a negative 59-123-2 ATS situation. Florida is also in a negative spot after their upset win, as they apply to a negative 26-70-5 ATS letdown situation.
My prediction?: Arkansas 34 Florida 24
Arkansas’ upset loss to Auburn, combined with Florida’s upset win at LSU, has given us plenty of line value on the side of the Hogs this week. Florida was in a very strong 50-10 ATS situation last week, so I wouldn’t make too much of their win, especially since they were out-played 4.4 yards per play to 5.0 yppl for LSU. Arkansas, meanwhile, out-gained a good Auburn team 5.1 yppl to 4.6 yppl and had two long touchdown runs called back by penalty. So, last week’s results really shouldn’t take on too much weight and Arkansas is a much better team based on their level of play for the whole season so far. The Razorbacks have been very good offensively, averaging 5.9 yppl against a schedule of teams that combines to allow just 5.1 yppl on defense, and they should have no trouble moving the ball against a Gators’ defense that is just a bit better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Arkansas is only a bit better than Florida defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense, but the Gators’ offense isn’t close to being as good as the Hogs’ attack. Florida’s freshman quarterback Chris Leak has been just mediocre, averaging 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.2 yppp on defense, and the Gators have averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play in his 3 starts (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense). Overall, my math model favors Arkansas by 12 ½ points in this game, but the Razorbacks sadly apply to a negative 59-123-2 ATS situation. Florida is also in a negative spot after their upset win, as they apply to a negative 26-70-5 ATS letdown situation.
My prediction?: Arkansas 34 Florida 24