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Virginia Tech (-13.0) @ West Virginia
This looks like a game to stay away from. There’s no doubt that the crowd in Morgantown will be fired up for this rare Wednesday night affair, but Virginia Tech has a long tradition of covering the number in competitive games when the line is 14 points or less (+ or -). The Hokies are 43-18-2 ATS in such games during the regular season and they have been a good bet in years in which they have and experienced defense. Virginia Tech is 41-17-2 ATS in regular season games when they have 6 or more returning starters on defense, including 24-3 ATS if they are not favored by more than 14 points. West Virginia, meanwhile, qualifies in a solid 83-32-2 ATS conference home dog momentum situation. From a fundamental standpoint, the line looks about right, as my math model favors the Hokies by 12 points in this game. West Virginia does a good job of running the ball on offense, averaging 4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that allow a combined 4.4 yprp on defense, and quarterback Marshall has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play this year (against teams that allow 6.3 yppp). Virginia Tech is very tough to run the ball against, allowing only 3.6 yprp to teams that average a combined 5.0 yprp on offense, and Marshall has been inconsistent with his passing this season – 3 times averaging over 9.5 yards per pass play and 3 times averaging less than 4.5 yppp. His passing will be the key to this game since Virginia Tech is likely to contain the Mounties’ rush attack. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Hokies to produce a good number of points with an attack that has averaged 6.3 yprp and 7.2 yppp against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.6 yprp and 6.4 yppp on defense. West Virginia is only a bit better than average against the run (4.3 yprp against teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense) and the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp), so they likely won’t have too much say in Virginia Tech’s offensive production. Overall, my math model favors Virginia Tech by 12 points, but West Virginia’s pass attack is the key to this game. If Marshall has one of his good games, then the Mountaineers will cover. If he has one of his bad games, then they probably won’t. I’ll pass.
BTW--I wont pass. I have taken Va Tech every game this year. I am 4-1 this year with them. Go Hokies.
This looks like a game to stay away from. There’s no doubt that the crowd in Morgantown will be fired up for this rare Wednesday night affair, but Virginia Tech has a long tradition of covering the number in competitive games when the line is 14 points or less (+ or -). The Hokies are 43-18-2 ATS in such games during the regular season and they have been a good bet in years in which they have and experienced defense. Virginia Tech is 41-17-2 ATS in regular season games when they have 6 or more returning starters on defense, including 24-3 ATS if they are not favored by more than 14 points. West Virginia, meanwhile, qualifies in a solid 83-32-2 ATS conference home dog momentum situation. From a fundamental standpoint, the line looks about right, as my math model favors the Hokies by 12 points in this game. West Virginia does a good job of running the ball on offense, averaging 4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that allow a combined 4.4 yprp on defense, and quarterback Marshall has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play this year (against teams that allow 6.3 yppp). Virginia Tech is very tough to run the ball against, allowing only 3.6 yprp to teams that average a combined 5.0 yprp on offense, and Marshall has been inconsistent with his passing this season – 3 times averaging over 9.5 yards per pass play and 3 times averaging less than 4.5 yppp. His passing will be the key to this game since Virginia Tech is likely to contain the Mounties’ rush attack. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Hokies to produce a good number of points with an attack that has averaged 6.3 yprp and 7.2 yppp against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.6 yprp and 6.4 yppp on defense. West Virginia is only a bit better than average against the run (4.3 yprp against teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense) and the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.1 yppp), so they likely won’t have too much say in Virginia Tech’s offensive production. Overall, my math model favors Virginia Tech by 12 points, but West Virginia’s pass attack is the key to this game. If Marshall has one of his good games, then the Mountaineers will cover. If he has one of his bad games, then they probably won’t. I’ll pass.
BTW--I wont pass. I have taken Va Tech every game this year. I am 4-1 this year with them. Go Hokies.
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