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Philly -3.0 versus NY Jets
The Eagles are not a good team right now and the Jets are underrated. However, the Eagles apply to a number of profitable contrary angles, which will keep me off the Jets. Philadelphia has been hurt by turnovers this year (-6 in TO margin), but they qualify in a solid 197-102-13 ATS contrary indicator based on that statistic. The Eagles also apply to a 241-145-11 ATS indicator based on their poor spread performance so far this season. Philadelphia also applies to a 174-94-7 ATS statistical match-up angle based on their superior rushing attack (4.8 ypr to the Jets 3.4 ypr), but all of that is not enough to get me on the Eagles in this game. Philadelphia’s rushing attack may be good, but Donovan McNabb continues to prove how overrated he’s been in his career. McNabb has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play in his career (the league average is 5.9 yppp) and has been even worse this season (3.5 yppp). Overall, the Eagles’ offense has managed only 4.0 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl on defense) and they don’t figure to score too many points against a solid Jets’ stop unit that’s given up 4.9 yppl this season to teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense for the season. The Eagles have played well defensively this season despite injuries, allowing only 4.5 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense, but their defense is not as good as their offense is bad. The Jets get quarterback Chad Pennington back this week, but Vinnie Testaverde will start and he’s actually done a good job throwing the ball this season, averaging a better than average 6.3 yppp (against teams that allow 6.1 yppp). The Jets haven’t been able to run the ball, but they are still pretty decent offensively overall (5.1 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl on defense) and should be able to muster a few drives against the Eagles’ stout defense. The Jets have a huge edge on special teams (almost 4 points) and my math model favors New York by 3 points in this game, which makes playing those strong angles on the Eagles tough to do. I’ll pass on this one.
I say philly by 5
The Eagles are not a good team right now and the Jets are underrated. However, the Eagles apply to a number of profitable contrary angles, which will keep me off the Jets. Philadelphia has been hurt by turnovers this year (-6 in TO margin), but they qualify in a solid 197-102-13 ATS contrary indicator based on that statistic. The Eagles also apply to a 241-145-11 ATS indicator based on their poor spread performance so far this season. Philadelphia also applies to a 174-94-7 ATS statistical match-up angle based on their superior rushing attack (4.8 ypr to the Jets 3.4 ypr), but all of that is not enough to get me on the Eagles in this game. Philadelphia’s rushing attack may be good, but Donovan McNabb continues to prove how overrated he’s been in his career. McNabb has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play in his career (the league average is 5.9 yppp) and has been even worse this season (3.5 yppp). Overall, the Eagles’ offense has managed only 4.0 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl on defense) and they don’t figure to score too many points against a solid Jets’ stop unit that’s given up 4.9 yppl this season to teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense for the season. The Eagles have played well defensively this season despite injuries, allowing only 4.5 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense, but their defense is not as good as their offense is bad. The Jets get quarterback Chad Pennington back this week, but Vinnie Testaverde will start and he’s actually done a good job throwing the ball this season, averaging a better than average 6.3 yppp (against teams that allow 6.1 yppp). The Jets haven’t been able to run the ball, but they are still pretty decent offensively overall (5.1 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl on defense) and should be able to muster a few drives against the Eagles’ stout defense. The Jets have a huge edge on special teams (almost 4 points) and my math model favors New York by 3 points in this game, which makes playing those strong angles on the Eagles tough to do. I’ll pass on this one.
I say philly by 5
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