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Indy -13.0 versus Houston
The Colts may have a tough time getting their lather back up after their bye week for a game with the Houston Texans. Home favorites coming off their bye week are just 44% ATS over the years and Indy applies to a negative 36-75 ATS subset of that angle. Houston, meanwhile, applies to a 81-34-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation, so I expect Dom Capers’ squad to play hard today. However, the Texans could be in big trouble if the Colts come into this game focused and ready to play. Houston has given up a horrendous 8.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense), they don’t defend the run that well (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average only 3.8 ypr) and they’ve given up 6.2 yards per play overall (against teams that average 5.4 yppl). The Colts, of course, have a pass attack that exploit Houston’s porous secondary, as they’ve averaged a healthy 7.5 yppp this season against teams that combine to allow just 5.8 yppp on defense. Indianapolis should top the 30 point plateau in this game, but Houston’s surprisingly competent offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) should have decent success against a mediocre Colts’ stop unit that’s given up 5.3 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Indianapolis by 15 points, but the situations favors Houston enough to get me leaning their way.
I say Indy by just 9
The Colts may have a tough time getting their lather back up after their bye week for a game with the Houston Texans. Home favorites coming off their bye week are just 44% ATS over the years and Indy applies to a negative 36-75 ATS subset of that angle. Houston, meanwhile, applies to a 81-34-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation, so I expect Dom Capers’ squad to play hard today. However, the Texans could be in big trouble if the Colts come into this game focused and ready to play. Houston has given up a horrendous 8.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that average 6.6 yppp on offense), they don’t defend the run that well (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average only 3.8 ypr) and they’ve given up 6.2 yards per play overall (against teams that average 5.4 yppl). The Colts, of course, have a pass attack that exploit Houston’s porous secondary, as they’ve averaged a healthy 7.5 yppp this season against teams that combine to allow just 5.8 yppp on defense. Indianapolis should top the 30 point plateau in this game, but Houston’s surprisingly competent offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) should have decent success against a mediocre Colts’ stop unit that’s given up 5.3 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Indianapolis by 15 points, but the situations favors Houston enough to get me leaning their way.
I say Indy by just 9
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