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Baltimore (-1.5) versus Broncos
The Broncos are down to 3rd string quarterback Danny Kanell with starter Jake Plummer out a few more weeks and veteran backup Steve Beuerlein now out with a broken finger. Kanell has decent experience with 22 career starts, but he’s averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play in those starts. I expect better numbers than that from Kanell in this Broncos’ offense, as Jake Plummer was playing considerably better this year with Denver (6.4 yppp) than in his career (5.5 yppp). But, I rate the Broncos pass attack below average with Kanell at quarterback. Thankfully, the Broncos now have a healthy Clinton Portis to hand the ball to and Portis has averaged 5.5 ypr this year and 5.5 ypr in his career, so he should have success running in this game despite facing a better than average Ravens’ run defense (3.6 ypr against teams that average a combined 3.9 ypr on offense). Baltimore is only slightly better than average defending the pass (5.6 yppp against teams that average 5.7 yppp), and I expect Kanell to have enough success throwing to give Denver a few scoring opportunities. However, the Ravens qualify in a very strong 50-12-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator in this game that plays on good running teams with good defenses against teams that are average or worse defending the run. Jamal Lewis (6.3 ypr) should run well against a Denver defensive front that’s allowed a mediocre 4.1 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense) and Baltimore rookie Kyle Boller had his best game of the season in their 26-34 loss to the Bengals last week, throwing for an average of 9.4 yards per pass play. Boller, however, has averaged just 4.6 yppp this season (against teams that allow 5.8 yppp) and it will be tough for him today against a Denver pass defense that has yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that average 5.9 yppp). Baltimore has averaged a decent 5.1 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense) despite Boller’s poor numbers and it looks like they’ll be able to run the football well in this game. Despite the 50-12-5 ATS fundamental indicator, I am reluctant to go against a Denver team that is 18-6-2 ATS in games after a loss, especially when considering that Baltimore hasn’t performed as well under Billick when facing a decent team. Since Billick arrived in 1999, the Ravens are 26-2 straight up against losing teams (not including 0-1 teams) and 11-24 against .500 teams or better (only 6-14-1 ATS when not getting more than 3 points against those teams). After making adjustments for Denver’s current personnel, my math model favors the Ravens by 2 ½ points, so the line looks fair and I’m certainly not going against that strong 50-12-5 ATS angle.
I like the ravens big in this one. Ravens by 14
The Broncos are down to 3rd string quarterback Danny Kanell with starter Jake Plummer out a few more weeks and veteran backup Steve Beuerlein now out with a broken finger. Kanell has decent experience with 22 career starts, but he’s averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play in those starts. I expect better numbers than that from Kanell in this Broncos’ offense, as Jake Plummer was playing considerably better this year with Denver (6.4 yppp) than in his career (5.5 yppp). But, I rate the Broncos pass attack below average with Kanell at quarterback. Thankfully, the Broncos now have a healthy Clinton Portis to hand the ball to and Portis has averaged 5.5 ypr this year and 5.5 ypr in his career, so he should have success running in this game despite facing a better than average Ravens’ run defense (3.6 ypr against teams that average a combined 3.9 ypr on offense). Baltimore is only slightly better than average defending the pass (5.6 yppp against teams that average 5.7 yppp), and I expect Kanell to have enough success throwing to give Denver a few scoring opportunities. However, the Ravens qualify in a very strong 50-12-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator in this game that plays on good running teams with good defenses against teams that are average or worse defending the run. Jamal Lewis (6.3 ypr) should run well against a Denver defensive front that’s allowed a mediocre 4.1 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense) and Baltimore rookie Kyle Boller had his best game of the season in their 26-34 loss to the Bengals last week, throwing for an average of 9.4 yards per pass play. Boller, however, has averaged just 4.6 yppp this season (against teams that allow 5.8 yppp) and it will be tough for him today against a Denver pass defense that has yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that average 5.9 yppp). Baltimore has averaged a decent 5.1 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense) despite Boller’s poor numbers and it looks like they’ll be able to run the football well in this game. Despite the 50-12-5 ATS fundamental indicator, I am reluctant to go against a Denver team that is 18-6-2 ATS in games after a loss, especially when considering that Baltimore hasn’t performed as well under Billick when facing a decent team. Since Billick arrived in 1999, the Ravens are 26-2 straight up against losing teams (not including 0-1 teams) and 11-24 against .500 teams or better (only 6-14-1 ATS when not getting more than 3 points against those teams). After making adjustments for Denver’s current personnel, my math model favors the Ravens by 2 ½ points, so the line looks fair and I’m certainly not going against that strong 50-12-5 ATS angle.
I like the ravens big in this one. Ravens by 14
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