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Boise St. (-7.0) @ BYU
Boise State’s offense exploded for 77 points last week against a horrible San Jose State defense, but the Broncos will have a much tougher time penetrating a very good BYU defense that is just as good as Boise’s offense. The Broncos have averaged a very impressive 6.5 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow a combined 5.9 yppl on defense for the season (the national average is 5.3 yppl). BYU, meanwhile, has given up 4.5 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, so they are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively while Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average on offense. With Boise State having just modest offensive production in this game, they may have a tough time winning by more than a touchdown. BYU’s offense is not very good, as the Cougars have averaged 4.6 yppl (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense), but they are about 0.3 yppl better with Matt Berry back at quarterback and Boise is only average defensively (5.1 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl). My mathematical model actually favors BYU by 4 ½ points in this game, but I will hold off on making them a Best Bet because of a negative 28-64-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset road win at UNLV last weekend. That angle is worth 7 points, which is not as much as the 11 ½ points of line value on BYU’s side. I’ll lean with BYU to at least keep this one close.
Prediction? Boise State 27 BYU 24
I hate BYU
Boise State’s offense exploded for 77 points last week against a horrible San Jose State defense, but the Broncos will have a much tougher time penetrating a very good BYU defense that is just as good as Boise’s offense. The Broncos have averaged a very impressive 6.5 yards per play this season, but they’ve faced teams that combine to allow a combined 5.9 yppl on defense for the season (the national average is 5.3 yppl). BYU, meanwhile, has given up 4.5 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, so they are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively while Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average on offense. With Boise State having just modest offensive production in this game, they may have a tough time winning by more than a touchdown. BYU’s offense is not very good, as the Cougars have averaged 4.6 yppl (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense), but they are about 0.3 yppl better with Matt Berry back at quarterback and Boise is only average defensively (5.1 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl). My mathematical model actually favors BYU by 4 ½ points in this game, but I will hold off on making them a Best Bet because of a negative 28-64-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset road win at UNLV last weekend. That angle is worth 7 points, which is not as much as the 11 ½ points of line value on BYU’s side. I’ll lean with BYU to at least keep this one close.
Prediction? Boise State 27 BYU 24
I hate BYU