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Miami Fla (-3.5) @ Va Tech
Virginia Tech may have got caught looking ahead to this game and they paid the price in a 7-28 loss at West Virginia last Wednesday. That loss takes a bit of the luster off of this game, but it will certainly have the Hokies ready for battle. Miami is always ready for battle in big games and I expect a close contest between two good, but flawed teams. Virginia Tech’s offense should work pretty well against a Hurricanes’ defense that is vulnerable to a good rushing attack and has given up 4.3 yards per rushing play this year (to teams that average a combined 4.5 yprp on offense). The Hokies average 5.8 yprp on offense (against teams that allow 4.5 yprp on defense) and they will be able to run well in this game. Virginia Tech’s efficient pass attack (7.0 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.3 yppp) will be slowed by a very good Miami secondary (5.0 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.5 yppp), but the ‘Canes have had trouble in the past with mobile quarterbacks and Bryan Randall fits the bill. Miami’s offense isn’t nearly as good as it’s been in past years, but the Hurricanes still have a good offense (6.0 yards per play against teams that allow 5.5 yppl on defense). However, Virginia Tech’s defense, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense, is a bit better than Miami’s offense and should limit the Hurricanes in this game. My mathematical model favors Miami by just 1 ½ points and while it’s tough to go against Miami in a near pick’em situation (they’ve covered their last 5 when not laying more than 7 points or when getting points), it’s also tough to go against an experienced Virginia Tech defense at home in an underdog role. The Hokies are 24-4 ATS in regular season games as a dog or favorite of 14 points or less in years in which they have 6 or more returning starters on defense and they are 10-2 ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points (2-0 ATS as a home dog to Miami). I’ll lean with Virginia Tech.
Prediction? Va Tech 26 Miami 24
Virginia Tech may have got caught looking ahead to this game and they paid the price in a 7-28 loss at West Virginia last Wednesday. That loss takes a bit of the luster off of this game, but it will certainly have the Hokies ready for battle. Miami is always ready for battle in big games and I expect a close contest between two good, but flawed teams. Virginia Tech’s offense should work pretty well against a Hurricanes’ defense that is vulnerable to a good rushing attack and has given up 4.3 yards per rushing play this year (to teams that average a combined 4.5 yprp on offense). The Hokies average 5.8 yprp on offense (against teams that allow 4.5 yprp on defense) and they will be able to run well in this game. Virginia Tech’s efficient pass attack (7.0 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.3 yppp) will be slowed by a very good Miami secondary (5.0 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.5 yppp), but the ‘Canes have had trouble in the past with mobile quarterbacks and Bryan Randall fits the bill. Miami’s offense isn’t nearly as good as it’s been in past years, but the Hurricanes still have a good offense (6.0 yards per play against teams that allow 5.5 yppl on defense). However, Virginia Tech’s defense, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense, is a bit better than Miami’s offense and should limit the Hurricanes in this game. My mathematical model favors Miami by just 1 ½ points and while it’s tough to go against Miami in a near pick’em situation (they’ve covered their last 5 when not laying more than 7 points or when getting points), it’s also tough to go against an experienced Virginia Tech defense at home in an underdog role. The Hokies are 24-4 ATS in regular season games as a dog or favorite of 14 points or less in years in which they have 6 or more returning starters on defense and they are 10-2 ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points (2-0 ATS as a home dog to Miami). I’ll lean with Virginia Tech.
Prediction? Va Tech 26 Miami 24
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