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Iowa (-26.0) versus Illinois
Iowa is a perfect 13-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 9 points under coach Ferentz, so the Hawkeyes have shown no remorse in beating up on bad teams. However, the banged up Iowa offense, averaging a modest 4.9 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.0 yppl on defense), may not have the firepower to cover such a big impost – especially since the Illini defense isn’t that much worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.6 yppl on offense). Illinois’ defense has been worse in conference play (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.8 yppl), so the Hawkeyes still should put up a good number of points on the board given the great field position that their great defense and special teams will give their offense. Iowa’s stop unit has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense) and they won’t have any trouble shutting down a sub-par Illinois attack that has generated just 4.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense). My math model favors Iowa by just 23 ½ points using all games and by 28 points using conference games only. I’m certainly more apt to believe that Illinois’ recent efforts are more indicative of what we can expect in this game and Iowa’s history as a big favorite is not something I wish to buck.
Prediction? Iowa 42 Illinois 10
Iowa is a perfect 13-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 9 points under coach Ferentz, so the Hawkeyes have shown no remorse in beating up on bad teams. However, the banged up Iowa offense, averaging a modest 4.9 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.0 yppl on defense), may not have the firepower to cover such a big impost – especially since the Illini defense isn’t that much worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.6 yppl on offense). Illinois’ defense has been worse in conference play (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.8 yppl), so the Hawkeyes still should put up a good number of points on the board given the great field position that their great defense and special teams will give their offense. Iowa’s stop unit has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense) and they won’t have any trouble shutting down a sub-par Illinois attack that has generated just 4.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense). My math model favors Iowa by just 23 ½ points using all games and by 28 points using conference games only. I’m certainly more apt to believe that Illinois’ recent efforts are more indicative of what we can expect in this game and Iowa’s history as a big favorite is not something I wish to buck.
Prediction? Iowa 42 Illinois 10
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