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Texas A&M (-10.5) versus Kansas
The loss of quarterback Bill Whittemore is devastating for a resurgent Kansas program that has bowl aspirations. Whittemore has been one of the nation’s best quarterbacks this season, averaging an incredible 9.0 yards per pass play while adding 361 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per rushing play in Division 1A games. Last season, the Jayhawks were a respectable 3-3 ATS with Whittemore at the controls and they lost by an average score of 8-49 in the 5 games he didn’t play in. I don’t think things will get quite that bad for Kansas this year, but the offense should go from very good to just average at best, assuming that Whittemore’s replacement puts up average passing numbers. Texas A&M is better than average defensively (5.3 yards per play allowed to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense), so I don’t expect Kansas to score too many points without Whittemore. The Aggies, meanwhile, should score plenty of points with their outstanding rushing attack (6.0 yards per rushing play against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yprp on defense) going up against a generous Kansas defense front that’s surrendered 5.2 yprp (to teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense). Texas A&M also figures to have pretty decent success throwing the football, so sustaining drives shouldn’t be a problem. My math model would have favored Texas A&M by just 5 ½ points with Whittemore playing for Kansas, but inserting an average passing quarterback (an assumption at this point) that doesn’t run into the equation makes the Aggies an 11 ½ points choice. A&M is just 1-6 ATS recently as a favorite, but Kansas is 0-6 ATS when Whittemore doesn’t play at least a half and he won’t play at all today
Prediction? Texas A&M 35 Kansas 17
The loss of quarterback Bill Whittemore is devastating for a resurgent Kansas program that has bowl aspirations. Whittemore has been one of the nation’s best quarterbacks this season, averaging an incredible 9.0 yards per pass play while adding 361 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per rushing play in Division 1A games. Last season, the Jayhawks were a respectable 3-3 ATS with Whittemore at the controls and they lost by an average score of 8-49 in the 5 games he didn’t play in. I don’t think things will get quite that bad for Kansas this year, but the offense should go from very good to just average at best, assuming that Whittemore’s replacement puts up average passing numbers. Texas A&M is better than average defensively (5.3 yards per play allowed to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense), so I don’t expect Kansas to score too many points without Whittemore. The Aggies, meanwhile, should score plenty of points with their outstanding rushing attack (6.0 yards per rushing play against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yprp on defense) going up against a generous Kansas defense front that’s surrendered 5.2 yprp (to teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense). Texas A&M also figures to have pretty decent success throwing the football, so sustaining drives shouldn’t be a problem. My math model would have favored Texas A&M by just 5 ½ points with Whittemore playing for Kansas, but inserting an average passing quarterback (an assumption at this point) that doesn’t run into the equation makes the Aggies an 11 ½ points choice. A&M is just 1-6 ATS recently as a favorite, but Kansas is 0-6 ATS when Whittemore doesn’t play at least a half and he won’t play at all today
Prediction? Texas A&M 35 Kansas 17