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Texas Tech (-14.5) versus Colorado
Texas Tech will be looking to bounce back from consecutive road losses and they should be able to pull away from the Buffaloes here in Lubbuck. The Red Raiders have covered 9 of their last 10 home games an dare 14-4 ATS as a home favorite under coach Leach. Texas Tech is also an incredible 31-6 ATS in regular season games after a loss (28-2 ATS if not a road favorite) and I’ll favor them to cover the number in this game despite the lack of line value. Texas Tech has the nation’s best offense, averaging 7.2 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense) and it’s doubtful that Colorado, allowing 8.5 yards per pass play (to teams that average 7.4 yppp on offense) will be able to keep the Red Raiders out of the endzone more than one or two times. However, Colorado’s better than average attack (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense) could score enough points against Texas Tech’s shoddy defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) to stay within the number. My math model actually favors Texas Tech by only 10 ½ points in this game and it could be dangerous laying too many points with a bad defensive team. The Red Raiders also apply to a negative 19-43-1 ATS situation that’s based on their poor defensive performance last week. However, I can’t ignore Tech’s long term record after a loss and their history of playing well at home under coach Leach.
Prediction? Texas Tech 55 Colorado 35
Texas Tech will be looking to bounce back from consecutive road losses and they should be able to pull away from the Buffaloes here in Lubbuck. The Red Raiders have covered 9 of their last 10 home games an dare 14-4 ATS as a home favorite under coach Leach. Texas Tech is also an incredible 31-6 ATS in regular season games after a loss (28-2 ATS if not a road favorite) and I’ll favor them to cover the number in this game despite the lack of line value. Texas Tech has the nation’s best offense, averaging 7.2 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense) and it’s doubtful that Colorado, allowing 8.5 yards per pass play (to teams that average 7.4 yppp on offense) will be able to keep the Red Raiders out of the endzone more than one or two times. However, Colorado’s better than average attack (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense) could score enough points against Texas Tech’s shoddy defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) to stay within the number. My math model actually favors Texas Tech by only 10 ½ points in this game and it could be dangerous laying too many points with a bad defensive team. The Red Raiders also apply to a negative 19-43-1 ATS situation that’s based on their poor defensive performance last week. However, I can’t ignore Tech’s long term record after a loss and their history of playing well at home under coach Leach.
Prediction? Texas Tech 55 Colorado 35
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