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Auburn (-37.0) versus UL Monroe
Auburn may be pissed off about last week’s blowout loss to LSU and home favorites of 20 points or more are pretty good bets after losing by 20 points or more. My math model only favors the Tigers by 32 points, but Auburn’s offense has played relatively better against worse than average defensive teams (6.7 yards per play against 2 teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppl on defense) than they have against good defensive teams (3.9 yppl against 5 teams that allow 4.6 yppl). The Indians are a bad defensive team and will likely be worn down by Auburn’s deep corps of talented running backs.
Prediciton? Auburn 49 UL Monroe 7
Auburn may be pissed off about last week’s blowout loss to LSU and home favorites of 20 points or more are pretty good bets after losing by 20 points or more. My math model only favors the Tigers by 32 points, but Auburn’s offense has played relatively better against worse than average defensive teams (6.7 yards per play against 2 teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppl on defense) than they have against good defensive teams (3.9 yppl against 5 teams that allow 4.6 yppl). The Indians are a bad defensive team and will likely be worn down by Auburn’s deep corps of talented running backs.
Prediciton? Auburn 49 UL Monroe 7