Tweet
Oakland at Detroit
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Oakland -3.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Oakland is now 0-7 ATS this season after their unfortunate home loss to Kansas City two weeks ago Monday, and they are without last year’s league MVP Rich Gannon, who is scheduled to be out 2 to 3 weeks with an injured shoulder. Gannon’s injury could be good news for the Raiders given his poor production so far this year (4.9 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.7 yppp on defense), and backup Tuiasosopo did a good job in rallying his team in the second half against the Chiefs when Gannon went down. Gannon’s reluctance to throw the ball downfield was a major problem and Tuiasosopo seems to have no such fear. The return of Jerry Porter also is a big help, as he was the only of Oakland’s receiving threats that could stretch the field and I expect the Raiders to be much better offensively now that he is back. Oakland has only averaged 4.9 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but they should perform well in this game against a Lions’ defense that has given up 6.7 yppp (to teams that average 6.0 yppp on offense) and 5.5 yppl (to teams that average 5.2 yppl) this season. Detroit’s troubled season continued last week in Chicago and the Lions struggling offense (4.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl on defense) may not be capable of taking advantage of a banged up Raiders’ defense that has surrendered 5.5 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. Both of these teams qualify in a good contrary angles, as the Raiders apply to an 82-35-1 ATS bounce-back angle that is based on their poor recent offensive efforts while the Lions apply to an 80-36-2 ATS contrary angle (underdogs or picks that have a win percentage of .250 or less and have lost 5 or more consecutive games). Oakland’s 0-7 ATS mark should not deter you from looking their way in this game, as the line has caught up to them (my math model favors Oakland by 3) and they should be better offensively with Porter back and Tuiasosopo throwing the ball downfield. Also, teams that start the season 0-7 ATS or worse are actually good bets (6-1 ATS).
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Oakland -3.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Oakland is now 0-7 ATS this season after their unfortunate home loss to Kansas City two weeks ago Monday, and they are without last year’s league MVP Rich Gannon, who is scheduled to be out 2 to 3 weeks with an injured shoulder. Gannon’s injury could be good news for the Raiders given his poor production so far this year (4.9 yards per pass play against teams that allow 5.7 yppp on defense), and backup Tuiasosopo did a good job in rallying his team in the second half against the Chiefs when Gannon went down. Gannon’s reluctance to throw the ball downfield was a major problem and Tuiasosopo seems to have no such fear. The return of Jerry Porter also is a big help, as he was the only of Oakland’s receiving threats that could stretch the field and I expect the Raiders to be much better offensively now that he is back. Oakland has only averaged 4.9 yards per play this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but they should perform well in this game against a Lions’ defense that has given up 6.7 yppp (to teams that average 6.0 yppp on offense) and 5.5 yppl (to teams that average 5.2 yppl) this season. Detroit’s troubled season continued last week in Chicago and the Lions struggling offense (4.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl on defense) may not be capable of taking advantage of a banged up Raiders’ defense that has surrendered 5.5 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. Both of these teams qualify in a good contrary angles, as the Raiders apply to an 82-35-1 ATS bounce-back angle that is based on their poor recent offensive efforts while the Lions apply to an 80-36-2 ATS contrary angle (underdogs or picks that have a win percentage of .250 or less and have lost 5 or more consecutive games). Oakland’s 0-7 ATS mark should not deter you from looking their way in this game, as the line has caught up to them (my math model favors Oakland by 3) and they should be better offensively with Porter back and Tuiasosopo throwing the ball downfield. Also, teams that start the season 0-7 ATS or worse are actually good bets (6-1 ATS).