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Jacksonville at Baltimore
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Baltimore -7.0
Total: 37.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Jacksonville once again out-played a good team but lost, as they averaged 5.7 yards per play last week against Tennessee while allowing the Titans just 4.9 yppl. Turnovers and bad special teams have hurt the Jaguars and today they are facing a team that is careful with the ball and has good special teams units. Baltimore also rarely loses to bad teams, as they are an incredible 26-2 straight up and 21-6-1 ATS under coach Billick when facing a team with a losing record (not including 0-1 teams). Jacksonville’s defense does match up pretty well with the Raven’s ground-oriented attack (they run 55% of the time for 5.3 ypr), as the Jags have given up only 3.2 ypr this season (to teams that combine to average 3.8 ypr on offense). The Jaguars are worse than average defending the pass (6.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense), but it’s doubtful that Ravens’ rookie quarterback Kyle Boller can take advantage of that secondary given that he’s averaged more than 4.4 yppp in only 1 game all season. The Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Byron Leftwich is doing a much better job throwing the ball (6.9 yppp against teams that combine to allow 6.8 yppp), but he’s also thrown 3 interceptions in 3 of his 4 starts and must learn not to force the ball into tight spots, something he could get away with in the MAC the last few years. The Ravens have a good pass defense (5.2 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp on offense) and they aren’t likely to give up much on the ground in this game, as they’ve yielded just 3.6 ypr (against teams that average 4.1 ypr) while the Jaguars have managed a sub-par 3.8 ypr on offense (against teams that allow a combined 4.0 ypr on defense). Teams that win to get above .500 have a tendency to relax a bit if facing a losing team the next week (Baltimore applies to a negative 26-58-1 ATS situation based on that premise), but the Ravens have not been a team that lets down against lesser competition and my math model favors them by 7 ½ points in this game. So, I’ll lean slightly with the Ravens to continue their success against losing teams – although the Jaguars have the advantage if Leftwich keeps his interceptions to one or less.
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Baltimore -7.0
Total: 37.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Jacksonville once again out-played a good team but lost, as they averaged 5.7 yards per play last week against Tennessee while allowing the Titans just 4.9 yppl. Turnovers and bad special teams have hurt the Jaguars and today they are facing a team that is careful with the ball and has good special teams units. Baltimore also rarely loses to bad teams, as they are an incredible 26-2 straight up and 21-6-1 ATS under coach Billick when facing a team with a losing record (not including 0-1 teams). Jacksonville’s defense does match up pretty well with the Raven’s ground-oriented attack (they run 55% of the time for 5.3 ypr), as the Jags have given up only 3.2 ypr this season (to teams that combine to average 3.8 ypr on offense). The Jaguars are worse than average defending the pass (6.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense), but it’s doubtful that Ravens’ rookie quarterback Kyle Boller can take advantage of that secondary given that he’s averaged more than 4.4 yppp in only 1 game all season. The Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Byron Leftwich is doing a much better job throwing the ball (6.9 yppp against teams that combine to allow 6.8 yppp), but he’s also thrown 3 interceptions in 3 of his 4 starts and must learn not to force the ball into tight spots, something he could get away with in the MAC the last few years. The Ravens have a good pass defense (5.2 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp on offense) and they aren’t likely to give up much on the ground in this game, as they’ve yielded just 3.6 ypr (against teams that average 4.1 ypr) while the Jaguars have managed a sub-par 3.8 ypr on offense (against teams that allow a combined 4.0 ypr on defense). Teams that win to get above .500 have a tendency to relax a bit if facing a losing team the next week (Baltimore applies to a negative 26-58-1 ATS situation based on that premise), but the Ravens have not been a team that lets down against lesser competition and my math model favors them by 7 ½ points in this game. So, I’ll lean slightly with the Ravens to continue their success against losing teams – although the Jaguars have the advantage if Leftwich keeps his interceptions to one or less.