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NY Giants at NY Jets
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: NY Giants -2.5
Total: 38.5
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Giants finally turned yards into points last week in Minnesota and beat the previously undefeated Vikings in a very good situation. There are no situations favoring either team in this game and I’ll go with an underrated Jets team to get the job done. The Jets have a better than average offense (5.3 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow 5.0 yppl on defense) and an average defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.9 yppl), so they are better than their 2-5 record. The return of quarterback Chad Pennington can’t hurt New York’s offense and running back Curtis Martin is starting to find his stride, gaining 198 yards the last 2 weeks at 5.4 ypr. Martin will have opportunities for another good game against a Giants’ defense that is a little worse than average defending the run (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense). The Giants do defend the pass well (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that average a combined 6.3 yppp on offense), so Pennington will be tested. Overall, the Jets’ offense rates a bit better than the Giants’ defense (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl) and I think they’ll put up a pretty good number of points. The Giants should be able to answer with a better than average offense (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) against a mediocre Jets’ stop unit that doesn’t defend the run well (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense). Tiki Barber should have a pretty good day running the ball, but Collins will be throwing into a pass defense that’s yielded a solid 5.2 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.6 yppp on offense). I give the Jets a big advantage in special teams and my math model favors them by 2 points in this game (giving no home field edge to either team). So, I’d prefer to take the points with a hungry Jets’ team that’s better than they’ve showed and now have their All-Pro quarterback back on the field.
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: NY Giants -2.5
Total: 38.5
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Giants finally turned yards into points last week in Minnesota and beat the previously undefeated Vikings in a very good situation. There are no situations favoring either team in this game and I’ll go with an underrated Jets team to get the job done. The Jets have a better than average offense (5.3 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow 5.0 yppl on defense) and an average defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 4.9 yppl), so they are better than their 2-5 record. The return of quarterback Chad Pennington can’t hurt New York’s offense and running back Curtis Martin is starting to find his stride, gaining 198 yards the last 2 weeks at 5.4 ypr. Martin will have opportunities for another good game against a Giants’ defense that is a little worse than average defending the run (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense). The Giants do defend the pass well (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that average a combined 6.3 yppp on offense), so Pennington will be tested. Overall, the Jets’ offense rates a bit better than the Giants’ defense (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl) and I think they’ll put up a pretty good number of points. The Giants should be able to answer with a better than average offense (5.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) against a mediocre Jets’ stop unit that doesn’t defend the run well (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.0 ypr on offense). Tiki Barber should have a pretty good day running the ball, but Collins will be throwing into a pass defense that’s yielded a solid 5.2 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.6 yppp on offense). I give the Jets a big advantage in special teams and my math model favors them by 2 points in this game (giving no home field edge to either team). So, I’d prefer to take the points with a hungry Jets’ team that’s better than they’ve showed and now have their All-Pro quarterback back on the field.