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Philadelphia at Atlanta
Sunday, Nov-02 01:15 PM
Favorite: Philadelphia -4.5
Total: 39.5
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Falcons qualify in a number of very strong situations and statistical indicators, but I don’t trust Kurt Kittner at quarterback for the Falcons, so I’ll just lean with Atlanta in this game. Kittner has averaged just 3.6 yards per pass play in his one start and two stints in mop-up duty this year (against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yppp on defense), but he should perform better in his second start and the Falcons have a good running attack (4.4 ypr against teams that allow 4.0 ypr) that should be able to put up decent numbers against the Eagles’ equally good run defense (3.3 ypr allowed to teams that average 3.7 ypr on offense). While I don’t expect the Falcons to score a lot of points with Kittner at quarterback against a good Eagles’ defense, I’m not sure that a horrible Donovan McNabb can take advantage of a horrible Falcons’ pass defense that has surrendered 8.2 yards per pass play (to teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense). McNabb has averaged a poor 4.8 yppp in his career (6.0 yppp in average) and a pathetic 3.5 yppp this season (against teams that allow 5.4 yppp) and he has not thrown for more than 5.1 yppp in any game this season. McNabb’s running makes him dangerous and the Eagles, averaging 5.0 ypr (against teams that allow 4.0 ypr) will get move the ball on the ground against a Falcons’ defensive front that has permitted 4.4 ypr this season (to teams that allow 4.0 ypr). After adjusting for Kittner at quarterback for Atlanta, I was surprised to see that my math model favors the Eagles by only 3 ½ points in this game. But, I guess that goes to show just how bad the Eagles’ offense has been. Atlanta is certainly worth a play for those that favor technical analysis, since the Falcons apply to a 204-114-9 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Eagles apply to a negative 14-45-1 ATS statistical profile indicator which suggests that Philly does not have the statistical characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road. Atlanta also applies to an interesting contrary angle, as teams that have a win percentage of .250 or less are a very profitable 80-36-2 ATS as underdogs or picks if they’ve lost 5 or more consecutive games. With the angles strongly favoring Atlanta and the line being fair based on my math model, I should probably be on the Falcons as a play, but my math projection assumes that Kittner will play at a level closer to the teams’ overall level of passing (Atlanta has averaged 5.2 yppp this season and Kittner just 3.6 yppp). If Kittner plays at the level he has played at in his limited time this season, then the math model would favor Philadelphia by 7 points. So, I’ll just consider the Falcons an opinion in this game since it’s uncertainly if Kittner just had a bad first start or if he’ll continue to play at that low level. At least we know that McNabb is likely to continue to play at his low level considering his years of bad passing.
Sunday, Nov-02 01:15 PM
Favorite: Philadelphia -4.5
Total: 39.5
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Falcons qualify in a number of very strong situations and statistical indicators, but I don’t trust Kurt Kittner at quarterback for the Falcons, so I’ll just lean with Atlanta in this game. Kittner has averaged just 3.6 yards per pass play in his one start and two stints in mop-up duty this year (against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yppp on defense), but he should perform better in his second start and the Falcons have a good running attack (4.4 ypr against teams that allow 4.0 ypr) that should be able to put up decent numbers against the Eagles’ equally good run defense (3.3 ypr allowed to teams that average 3.7 ypr on offense). While I don’t expect the Falcons to score a lot of points with Kittner at quarterback against a good Eagles’ defense, I’m not sure that a horrible Donovan McNabb can take advantage of a horrible Falcons’ pass defense that has surrendered 8.2 yards per pass play (to teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense). McNabb has averaged a poor 4.8 yppp in his career (6.0 yppp in average) and a pathetic 3.5 yppp this season (against teams that allow 5.4 yppp) and he has not thrown for more than 5.1 yppp in any game this season. McNabb’s running makes him dangerous and the Eagles, averaging 5.0 ypr (against teams that allow 4.0 ypr) will get move the ball on the ground against a Falcons’ defensive front that has permitted 4.4 ypr this season (to teams that allow 4.0 ypr). After adjusting for Kittner at quarterback for Atlanta, I was surprised to see that my math model favors the Eagles by only 3 ½ points in this game. But, I guess that goes to show just how bad the Eagles’ offense has been. Atlanta is certainly worth a play for those that favor technical analysis, since the Falcons apply to a 204-114-9 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Eagles apply to a negative 14-45-1 ATS statistical profile indicator which suggests that Philly does not have the statistical characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road. Atlanta also applies to an interesting contrary angle, as teams that have a win percentage of .250 or less are a very profitable 80-36-2 ATS as underdogs or picks if they’ve lost 5 or more consecutive games. With the angles strongly favoring Atlanta and the line being fair based on my math model, I should probably be on the Falcons as a play, but my math projection assumes that Kittner will play at a level closer to the teams’ overall level of passing (Atlanta has averaged 5.2 yppp this season and Kittner just 3.6 yppp). If Kittner plays at the level he has played at in his limited time this season, then the math model would favor Philadelphia by 7 points. So, I’ll just consider the Falcons an opinion in this game since it’s uncertainly if Kittner just had a bad first start or if he’ll continue to play at that low level. At least we know that McNabb is likely to continue to play at his low level considering his years of bad passing.
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