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Thurs Nov 6th
Picks are: South Carolina, New Mexico, Kansas State, Rice, Oklahoma State & Texas Tech
Analysis:
South Carolina (+7.5) @ Arkansas
I have to take the points here with South Carolina against what could be a tired Arkansas team that is coming off of win against Kentucky that took seven overtimes. Lou Holtz should have his team ready to play, and the Cocks are 10-3 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% to 75% since 1992. South Carolina is also 8-2 against the spread in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 Arkansas is only 2-8 in their last ten games as a home favorite and 1-5 against the spread after playing four straight games as a favorite over the last three seasons. South Carolina could steal the win here!
Friday Nov 7
Colorado St. (-1) @ New Mexico
I have watched both these teams play live against my Utes. New Mexico drummed us and we beat CSU on a late touchdown.
I hate to go against Colorado State and Bradlee Van Pelt on national TV, but this game just looks too easy. Colorado State has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 straight up and going 6-3 against the number in those games and yet they are only a one point favorite. New Mexico is 7-0 against the spread in home games after a home loss since 1992, I'm going to make a small play on New Mexico to break through here!
Sat Nov 8th
Kansas State (-17.5) @ Iowa State
I look for the blow-out here. Kansas State has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams by at least 18 points and have won the last three meetings by margins of 51, 39 and 46 points. Iowa State is terrible, they are 0-6 against the spread as an underdog this season and 1-6 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. K-State should have a field day against the 103rd ranked defense of Iowa State that allows 33 points per game. The Cyclones are 1-6 against the spread versus high powered offensive teams that are scoring 37 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons, while K-State is 5-1 against the spread versus bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. This one should get ugly, lay the wood here!
Tulsa (-3) @ Rice
Tulsa snapped their 17 game road losing streak last week against UTEP, but I don't see them winning back to back road games, especially here against a Rice team that is now 14-1-1 against the spread in their last 16 home games as an underdog or pick. The Owls have been playing very well the last two weeks since the return of senior quarterback Kyle Herm. Herm who missed most of five games after breaking two ribs in a season-opening loss to Houston, had 103 yards on 19 carries in his first start back against Fresno State on two weeks ago as the Owls nearly pulled off a major upset before dropping a 31-28 decision. Last week Herm accounted for 331 yards in total offense and four touchdowns as the Owls upset Nevada in a wild shootout, 52-42, at Rice Stadium. Tulsa is only 1-6 against the spread after a double digit road win since 1992, 4-12 against the spread after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992 and 1-7 against the spread in road games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. Rice is fourth in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 272 yards per game and Tulsa is only 4-13 against the spread versus good rushing teams that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game since 1992. Also, home underdogs that out rush their opponents are over 90% against the spread. Take the Owls (Rice) here!
Texas (-3) @ Oklahoma State
I love the Cowboys(OSU) as a home underdog here against the Horns(Texas). Texas played outstanding last week at home and totally dominated Nebraska, while the Cowboys were dismantled last week by the Sooners, but I look for State to come away with the win here. The Cowboys potent offense was shutdown last week by OU, but they should get back to their scoring ways against an inconsistent Longhorn defense. Oklahoma State is 11-3 against the spread after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992 and Texas is only 1-6 against the spread versus high powered offensive teams that are scoring 37 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. The Longhorns are only 1-6 against the spread after a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and road favorites that have covered the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, that have a winning record on the season playing another team with a winning record are only 18-43 against the spread since 1992. I'm not worried about the mental state of the Cowboys after being hammered by the Sooners last week either, they are 9-1 against the spread in home games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992. Take the Cowboys here!
Texas Tech (-27) @ Baylor
The Red Raiders offense has not been firing on all cylinders the past two weeks as they have turned the ball over eleven times in the past two games. I look for them to get back on track this week against the 105th ranked scoring defense of Baylor that is allowing an average of 35 points per game. The Red Raiders average 43 points per game, and Baylor is only 1-31 against the spread in their last 32 games when they allow 35 or more points. Texas Tech is 30-6 against the spread in their last 36 conference road wins and Baylor is only 2-19 against the spread in their last 21 home conference games. Texas Tech is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 meetings with Baylor and the Raiders have beaten Baylor by margins of 44 and 51 points the last two seasons while scoring over 60 points in both of those games, I see no reason why this season will be any different. Lay the wood here!
Picks are: South Carolina, New Mexico, Kansas State, Rice, Oklahoma State & Texas Tech
Analysis:
South Carolina (+7.5) @ Arkansas
I have to take the points here with South Carolina against what could be a tired Arkansas team that is coming off of win against Kentucky that took seven overtimes. Lou Holtz should have his team ready to play, and the Cocks are 10-3 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% to 75% since 1992. South Carolina is also 8-2 against the spread in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 Arkansas is only 2-8 in their last ten games as a home favorite and 1-5 against the spread after playing four straight games as a favorite over the last three seasons. South Carolina could steal the win here!
Friday Nov 7
Colorado St. (-1) @ New Mexico
I have watched both these teams play live against my Utes. New Mexico drummed us and we beat CSU on a late touchdown.
I hate to go against Colorado State and Bradlee Van Pelt on national TV, but this game just looks too easy. Colorado State has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 straight up and going 6-3 against the number in those games and yet they are only a one point favorite. New Mexico is 7-0 against the spread in home games after a home loss since 1992, I'm going to make a small play on New Mexico to break through here!
Sat Nov 8th
Kansas State (-17.5) @ Iowa State
I look for the blow-out here. Kansas State has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams by at least 18 points and have won the last three meetings by margins of 51, 39 and 46 points. Iowa State is terrible, they are 0-6 against the spread as an underdog this season and 1-6 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. K-State should have a field day against the 103rd ranked defense of Iowa State that allows 33 points per game. The Cyclones are 1-6 against the spread versus high powered offensive teams that are scoring 37 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons, while K-State is 5-1 against the spread versus bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. This one should get ugly, lay the wood here!
Tulsa (-3) @ Rice
Tulsa snapped their 17 game road losing streak last week against UTEP, but I don't see them winning back to back road games, especially here against a Rice team that is now 14-1-1 against the spread in their last 16 home games as an underdog or pick. The Owls have been playing very well the last two weeks since the return of senior quarterback Kyle Herm. Herm who missed most of five games after breaking two ribs in a season-opening loss to Houston, had 103 yards on 19 carries in his first start back against Fresno State on two weeks ago as the Owls nearly pulled off a major upset before dropping a 31-28 decision. Last week Herm accounted for 331 yards in total offense and four touchdowns as the Owls upset Nevada in a wild shootout, 52-42, at Rice Stadium. Tulsa is only 1-6 against the spread after a double digit road win since 1992, 4-12 against the spread after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992 and 1-7 against the spread in road games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. Rice is fourth in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 272 yards per game and Tulsa is only 4-13 against the spread versus good rushing teams that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game since 1992. Also, home underdogs that out rush their opponents are over 90% against the spread. Take the Owls (Rice) here!
Texas (-3) @ Oklahoma State
I love the Cowboys(OSU) as a home underdog here against the Horns(Texas). Texas played outstanding last week at home and totally dominated Nebraska, while the Cowboys were dismantled last week by the Sooners, but I look for State to come away with the win here. The Cowboys potent offense was shutdown last week by OU, but they should get back to their scoring ways against an inconsistent Longhorn defense. Oklahoma State is 11-3 against the spread after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992 and Texas is only 1-6 against the spread versus high powered offensive teams that are scoring 37 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. The Longhorns are only 1-6 against the spread after a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and road favorites that have covered the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, that have a winning record on the season playing another team with a winning record are only 18-43 against the spread since 1992. I'm not worried about the mental state of the Cowboys after being hammered by the Sooners last week either, they are 9-1 against the spread in home games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992. Take the Cowboys here!
Texas Tech (-27) @ Baylor
The Red Raiders offense has not been firing on all cylinders the past two weeks as they have turned the ball over eleven times in the past two games. I look for them to get back on track this week against the 105th ranked scoring defense of Baylor that is allowing an average of 35 points per game. The Red Raiders average 43 points per game, and Baylor is only 1-31 against the spread in their last 32 games when they allow 35 or more points. Texas Tech is 30-6 against the spread in their last 36 conference road wins and Baylor is only 2-19 against the spread in their last 21 home conference games. Texas Tech is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 meetings with Baylor and the Raiders have beaten Baylor by margins of 44 and 51 points the last two seasons while scoring over 60 points in both of those games, I see no reason why this season will be any different. Lay the wood here!
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