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People living in the American Southwest have seen their share of drought. But the West's recent water woes may pale in comparison to what's coming later in the century, researchers say. The Southwest may very well face a decades-long megadrought before the 21st century is out.
A team climate scientists led by Toby Ault, an atmospheric researcher at Cornell University, has just calculated the risk of a Southwestern megadrought occurring by 2100. By "megadrought" they mean an extreme, bone-dry period that can last for more than 35 years. According to Ault's research, if we continue producing greenhouse gases at our current rate, then there's a 70 to 99 percent chance of a megadrought that would stretch across the West, from San Francisco to Boulder, Colorado to the Gulf of California. The scientists' drought analysis was published today in the journal Science Advances.
"We know these megadroughts have happened here before, and we know they can happen again," says Ault. "If we get really aggressive on combating climate change now, we can cut that risk in roughly half."
MEGADROUGHT
"Megadrought" may sound like a plot device fabricated for a low-budget disaster movie, but it's certainly not a new concept. "Based on tree rings and various other geological records, we know that multiple megadroughts have occurred in the last 1,000 years," says Ault. In fact, the most recent recorded megadrought in the Southwest happened at the end of the 16th century. "We think it's linked to the fall of the Puebloan civilization, which built cities into the cliff faces of the four corners region" (the intersection of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona).
The Southwest Will Probably Suffer a Crippling Megadrought This Century
A team climate scientists led by Toby Ault, an atmospheric researcher at Cornell University, has just calculated the risk of a Southwestern megadrought occurring by 2100. By "megadrought" they mean an extreme, bone-dry period that can last for more than 35 years. According to Ault's research, if we continue producing greenhouse gases at our current rate, then there's a 70 to 99 percent chance of a megadrought that would stretch across the West, from San Francisco to Boulder, Colorado to the Gulf of California. The scientists' drought analysis was published today in the journal Science Advances.
"We know these megadroughts have happened here before, and we know they can happen again," says Ault. "If we get really aggressive on combating climate change now, we can cut that risk in roughly half."
MEGADROUGHT
"Megadrought" may sound like a plot device fabricated for a low-budget disaster movie, but it's certainly not a new concept. "Based on tree rings and various other geological records, we know that multiple megadroughts have occurred in the last 1,000 years," says Ault. In fact, the most recent recorded megadrought in the Southwest happened at the end of the 16th century. "We think it's linked to the fall of the Puebloan civilization, which built cities into the cliff faces of the four corners region" (the intersection of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona).
The Southwest Will Probably Suffer a Crippling Megadrought This Century