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Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d262d810b27d
The Facts
Few disagree that the official death toll is far too low. The Puerto Rican government has already asked researchers at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health to examine death certificate and mortality data to come up with a better number. That report is due to be completed in the coming months.
There have been several attempts already to estimate the actual death toll.
Here’s a sampling:
The New York Times calculated 1,052 deaths through October.
The Center for Investigative Reporting calculated 985 through October.
University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez professors calculated 822, with a 95 percent confidence range that the total was somewhere between 605 and 1,039.
Pennsylvania State University professors calculated excess deaths of about 500 in September, or a total of 1,085 if the same pattern held in October. That estimate was based on six weeks of mortality records.
A Latino USA analysis, using updated data from Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, calculated 1,194 excess deaths in September and October.
unlike body counts in wars. The Harvard study offers only an estimate – a midpoint along a broad range of possibilities. It is not based on death records, only estimates of deaths from people who were interviewed in a survey.
In effect, the researchers took one number – 15 deaths identified from a survey of 3,299 households – and extrapolated that to come up with 4,645 deaths across the island. That number came with a very large caveat, clearly identified in the report, but few news media accounts bothered to explain the nuances.
In effect, the researchers took one number – 15 deaths identified from a survey of 3,299 households – and extrapolated that to come up with 4,645 deaths across the island. That number came with a very large caveat, clearly identified in the report, but few news media accounts bothered to explain the nuances.
The Facts
Few disagree that the official death toll is far too low. The Puerto Rican government has already asked researchers at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health to examine death certificate and mortality data to come up with a better number. That report is due to be completed in the coming months.
There have been several attempts already to estimate the actual death toll.
Here’s a sampling:
The New York Times calculated 1,052 deaths through October.
The Center for Investigative Reporting calculated 985 through October.
University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez professors calculated 822, with a 95 percent confidence range that the total was somewhere between 605 and 1,039.
Pennsylvania State University professors calculated excess deaths of about 500 in September, or a total of 1,085 if the same pattern held in October. That estimate was based on six weeks of mortality records.
A Latino USA analysis, using updated data from Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, calculated 1,194 excess deaths in September and October.
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