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Nfl Playoff Scenarios
By Jeremy Stone, Yahoo! Sports
December 28, 2003
AFC East
New England Patriots (14-2): Clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs by defeating Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins (9-6): Eliminated from playoff contention. In a tie with Denver for the No. 6 seed, Denver would have a better conference record (9-3 to 7-5).
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (9-6): Can clinch the division title and No. 4 seed with a win or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR a Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Cleveland.
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Cincinnati Bengals (8-7): Can clinch the division title and No. 4 seed with a win vs. Cleveland AND a Baltimore loss vs. Pittsburgh.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (11-4): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the division title with a win at Houston OR a Tennessee loss vs. Tampa Bay.
• Can earn the No. 3, 5 or 6 seed.
Tennessee Titans (11-4): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the division title with a win vs. Tampa Bay AND an Indianapolis loss at Houston.
• Can earn the No. 3, 5 or 6 seed.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (12-3): Have clinched the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.
Denver Broncos (10-5): Have clinched the No. 5 or 6 seed.
• Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win at Green Bay AND either an Indianapolis loss at Houston OR a Tennessee loss vs. Tampa Bay.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (12-4): Have clinched the division title and a first-round bye.
• Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a St. Louis loss at Detroit.
Dallas Cowboys (10-5): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win or tie at New Orleans OR by winning the strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker vs. Seattle*. Otherwise, Dallas is the No. 6 seed and Seattle is No. 5.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (9-6): Can clinch the division title with a win at Arizona OR a Green Bay loss vs. Denver and any of the following: Atlanta win or tie, Detroit win or tie, Kansas City win or tie, San Diego loss or tie AND Tampa Bay loss or tie.
• Can earn the No. 3 seed with a win and Carolina loss at NY Giants.
• Cannot be wild card.
Green Bay Packers (9-6): Can clinch the division title with a win vs. Denver AND a Minnesota loss at Arizona.
• Can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. Denver AND a Dallas win or tie at New Orleans AND Dallas winning strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker vs. Seattle*.
• Can earn the No. 4 or 6 seed or miss the playoffs.
• If Minnesota and Green Bay finish tied at 9-7, Minnesota would win the division title based on better strength of victory UNLESS Atlanta loses vs. Jacksonville, Detroit loses vs. St. Louis, Kansas City loses vs. Chicago, San Diego wins vs. Oakland AND Tampa Bay wins at Tennessee. In that case, Green Bay would win the division title based on better strength of schedule.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (10-5): Have clinched the division title.
• Can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win or tie at NY Giants OR Minnesota loss or tie at Arizona.
• Can earn No. 3 or 4 seed.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams (12-3): Have clinched the division title and a first-round bye.
• Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win or tie at Detroit.
Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a Dallas loss at New Orleans AND by winning the strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker with Dallas*.
• Can clinch No. 6 seed with a Green Bay loss vs. Denver OR a Minnesota loss at Arizona.
• Can earn the No. 5 or No. 6 seed or miss the playoffs.
* The next tiebreaker after head-to-head, division or conference record and record vs. common opponents is strength of victory. The NFC North scenarios indicate the only way Green Bay can pull even in this tie with Minnesota (and actually win the next tie, strength of schedule).
The potential NFC wild-card tie between Dallas and Seattle is more complex. If New Orleans beats Dallas, Dallas and Seattle finish 10-6 and have a better conference record than Green Bay. Counting New Orleans' win, teams Seattle has defeated will have combined for 61 wins, to 59 wins for teams Dallas has defeated.
Seattle will most likely win the tie. Only wins by NY Jets, Carolina and NY Giants (whom Dallas defeated twice) would help the Cowboys (note Carolina is at NY Giants); while wins by Chicago, Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona and Pittsburgh would help Seattle.
Should the teams remain tied after the strength of victory tiebreaker, the strength of schedule is very close. Both teams would be tied with the exception of three different opponents. Wins by Atlanta, Miami and Tampa Bay would help Dallas; wins by Cincinnati, St. Louis and Balitmore would help Seattle.
Should the teams remain tied after strength of schedule tiebreaker, the next tiebreaker is best combined ranking among NFC teams in points scored and points allowed, followed by best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed, best net points in conference games, best net points in all games and best net touchdowns in all games. Through Saturday's games, Seattle ranked 3rd in the NFC in points scored and ninth in points allowed, while Dallas ranked 11th in the NFC in points scored and second in points allowed.
By Jeremy Stone, Yahoo! Sports
December 28, 2003
AFC East
New England Patriots (14-2): Clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs by defeating Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins (9-6): Eliminated from playoff contention. In a tie with Denver for the No. 6 seed, Denver would have a better conference record (9-3 to 7-5).
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (9-6): Can clinch the division title and No. 4 seed with a win or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR a Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Cleveland.
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Cincinnati Bengals (8-7): Can clinch the division title and No. 4 seed with a win vs. Cleveland AND a Baltimore loss vs. Pittsburgh.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (11-4): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the division title with a win at Houston OR a Tennessee loss vs. Tampa Bay.
• Can earn the No. 3, 5 or 6 seed.
Tennessee Titans (11-4): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the division title with a win vs. Tampa Bay AND an Indianapolis loss at Houston.
• Can earn the No. 3, 5 or 6 seed.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (12-3): Have clinched the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.
Denver Broncos (10-5): Have clinched the No. 5 or 6 seed.
• Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win at Green Bay AND either an Indianapolis loss at Houston OR a Tennessee loss vs. Tampa Bay.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (12-4): Have clinched the division title and a first-round bye.
• Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a St. Louis loss at Detroit.
Dallas Cowboys (10-5): Have clinched a playoff berth.
• Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win or tie at New Orleans OR by winning the strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker vs. Seattle*. Otherwise, Dallas is the No. 6 seed and Seattle is No. 5.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (9-6): Can clinch the division title with a win at Arizona OR a Green Bay loss vs. Denver and any of the following: Atlanta win or tie, Detroit win or tie, Kansas City win or tie, San Diego loss or tie AND Tampa Bay loss or tie.
• Can earn the No. 3 seed with a win and Carolina loss at NY Giants.
• Cannot be wild card.
Green Bay Packers (9-6): Can clinch the division title with a win vs. Denver AND a Minnesota loss at Arizona.
• Can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. Denver AND a Dallas win or tie at New Orleans AND Dallas winning strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker vs. Seattle*.
• Can earn the No. 4 or 6 seed or miss the playoffs.
• If Minnesota and Green Bay finish tied at 9-7, Minnesota would win the division title based on better strength of victory UNLESS Atlanta loses vs. Jacksonville, Detroit loses vs. St. Louis, Kansas City loses vs. Chicago, San Diego wins vs. Oakland AND Tampa Bay wins at Tennessee. In that case, Green Bay would win the division title based on better strength of schedule.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (10-5): Have clinched the division title.
• Can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win or tie at NY Giants OR Minnesota loss or tie at Arizona.
• Can earn No. 3 or 4 seed.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams (12-3): Have clinched the division title and a first-round bye.
• Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win or tie at Detroit.
Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a Dallas loss at New Orleans AND by winning the strength of victory or subsequent tiebreaker with Dallas*.
• Can clinch No. 6 seed with a Green Bay loss vs. Denver OR a Minnesota loss at Arizona.
• Can earn the No. 5 or No. 6 seed or miss the playoffs.
* The next tiebreaker after head-to-head, division or conference record and record vs. common opponents is strength of victory. The NFC North scenarios indicate the only way Green Bay can pull even in this tie with Minnesota (and actually win the next tie, strength of schedule).
The potential NFC wild-card tie between Dallas and Seattle is more complex. If New Orleans beats Dallas, Dallas and Seattle finish 10-6 and have a better conference record than Green Bay. Counting New Orleans' win, teams Seattle has defeated will have combined for 61 wins, to 59 wins for teams Dallas has defeated.
Seattle will most likely win the tie. Only wins by NY Jets, Carolina and NY Giants (whom Dallas defeated twice) would help the Cowboys (note Carolina is at NY Giants); while wins by Chicago, Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona and Pittsburgh would help Seattle.
Should the teams remain tied after the strength of victory tiebreaker, the strength of schedule is very close. Both teams would be tied with the exception of three different opponents. Wins by Atlanta, Miami and Tampa Bay would help Dallas; wins by Cincinnati, St. Louis and Balitmore would help Seattle.
Should the teams remain tied after strength of schedule tiebreaker, the next tiebreaker is best combined ranking among NFC teams in points scored and points allowed, followed by best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed, best net points in conference games, best net points in all games and best net touchdowns in all games. Through Saturday's games, Seattle ranked 3rd in the NFC in points scored and ninth in points allowed, while Dallas ranked 11th in the NFC in points scored and second in points allowed.
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