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Strongest hurricane that’s ever hit Caribbean island nation
Dorian came ashore on tiny Elbow Cay in the Bahamas Sunday as the strongest hurricane ever recorded there, bringing 185 mile-per-hour winds, 10 to 15 inches of rain, and a storm surge that could top 23 feet.
The eye of Category 5 Dorian struck about 12:40 p.m. with wind gusts of more than 220 mph (354 kilometers per hour) in addition to its sustained winds, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported. “This is a life-threatening situation.”
The threat to Florida remains uncertain, with forecasters saying the storm could turn north up the coast to threaten landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas. But due to Dorian’s size, power and fluctuations in weather patterns, the state isn’t out of danger.
Even if Dorian remains 50 miles from shore, there could be “a long stretch of wind and storm damage” from south Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras, said Todd Crawford, senior meteorological scientist at IBM’s The Weather Co.
“Minor differences on the order of 50 miles in the eventual track and size of Dorian will mean the difference between millions and billions of dollars in damage and between thousands and millions of power outages,” Crawford said in an email.
Only four Category 5 hurricanes have hit the U.S. mainland, although the previous one was less than a year ago, Hurricane Michael in October 2018, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. With top winds of 180 mph, Dorian is tied with Gilbert as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever measured in September.
Dorian “is going off the charts in a hurry,” Klotzbach said.
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for parts of Florida’s Palm Beach County, including the Mar-a-Lago club owned by the Donald Trump, which the president often uses as a “Winter White House.” There’s a hurricane watch from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County line and a tropical storm watch for Lake Okeechobee.
Florida’s fate will hang on the strength of a high pressure system in the western Atlantic and how far Dorian can move west. If that system weakens, then Dorian should veer away from the coastline, which has some of the priciest property in the U.S. If it stays strong, the catastrophic tempest will come perilously close to shore, said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger in Tallahassee, Florida.
“The name of the game is forward speed,” Truchelut said. “At this point, monitoring the motion of Dorian tick by tick using radar, satellite, and aircraft observations will reveal potential changes more meaningfully than model guidance; even a 1 mph faster average speed risks bringing the eyewall of Dorian to the east Florida coastline.”
Hurricanes pack their deadliest winds around the center of the eye. That’s why landfall is so closely monitored because it means the eye has crossed over. Several islands in the Bahamas are in the center of that destructive force.
“A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday,” said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center.
Elbow Cay, where Dorian came ashore was described as having a “New England-meets-the-tropics ambiance,” according to Coastal Living magazine. A Category 5 hurricane will flatten many homes, snap trees and powerlines and leave the area “unihabitable for weeks or months,” the hurricane center said.
Dorian, one of five storms to form in the Atlantic so far this year, menaced the U.S. Virgin Islands last week. The storm is now forecast to drift up the East Coast later this week possibly even coming ashore in eastern North Carolina.
“This marks the fourth consecutive year with a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic,” said Jim Rouiller, chief meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group outside Philadelphia. “We’re entering uncharted territory.”
At a Saturday morning press conference, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis encouraged Floridians not to let their guard down. He said a “bump in one direction or the other” could yet change the likelihood of impact.
“You’re still looking at significant impacts even if the storm remains hugging the coast,” DeSantis said. Storm surges and flooding remained a serious risk, in part because the storm coincides with a periodic event known as king tides, especially high tides which frequently cause flooding in South Florida even on sunny days. Its current projected turn would also bring it close to the St. Lucie nuclear power station, home to two nuclear reactors owned by Nextera Energy Inc.’s subsidiary Florida Power & Light.
In 2016, Hurricane Matthew veered away from Florida without a landfall but still left massive destruction in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina from torrential rains. Even a glancing blow could cost upwards to $7 billion in damage, Chuck Watson, a modeler with Enki Research, said on his blog.
“Don’t make any assumptions, remain vigilant and be prepared,” Governor DeSantis said at the press conference Saturday. “You don’t want to over-read these tracks.”
DeSantis activated 2,500 Florida National Guard troops, and 1,500 more have been told to be prepared, according to a press release Saturday. Dozens of school districts and colleges have announced they’ll close at least through the end of the day Tuesday.
The governor’s office also said that tolls would be lifted in relevant areas to speed traffic if and when evacuations are ordered. Meanwhile, the Florida Highway Patrol is escorting fuel trucks to get supplies where they are needed.
The hurricane center is tracking three other potential storms in the Atlantic. One, near Cabo Verde off Africa, has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next five days. Another, near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, has a 30% chance. A third disturbance has popped up several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...toward-florida
Dorian came ashore on tiny Elbow Cay in the Bahamas Sunday as the strongest hurricane ever recorded there, bringing 185 mile-per-hour winds, 10 to 15 inches of rain, and a storm surge that could top 23 feet.
The eye of Category 5 Dorian struck about 12:40 p.m. with wind gusts of more than 220 mph (354 kilometers per hour) in addition to its sustained winds, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported. “This is a life-threatening situation.”
The threat to Florida remains uncertain, with forecasters saying the storm could turn north up the coast to threaten landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas. But due to Dorian’s size, power and fluctuations in weather patterns, the state isn’t out of danger.
Even if Dorian remains 50 miles from shore, there could be “a long stretch of wind and storm damage” from south Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras, said Todd Crawford, senior meteorological scientist at IBM’s The Weather Co.
“Minor differences on the order of 50 miles in the eventual track and size of Dorian will mean the difference between millions and billions of dollars in damage and between thousands and millions of power outages,” Crawford said in an email.
Only four Category 5 hurricanes have hit the U.S. mainland, although the previous one was less than a year ago, Hurricane Michael in October 2018, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. With top winds of 180 mph, Dorian is tied with Gilbert as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever measured in September.
Dorian “is going off the charts in a hurry,” Klotzbach said.
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for parts of Florida’s Palm Beach County, including the Mar-a-Lago club owned by the Donald Trump, which the president often uses as a “Winter White House.” There’s a hurricane watch from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County line and a tropical storm watch for Lake Okeechobee.
Florida’s fate will hang on the strength of a high pressure system in the western Atlantic and how far Dorian can move west. If that system weakens, then Dorian should veer away from the coastline, which has some of the priciest property in the U.S. If it stays strong, the catastrophic tempest will come perilously close to shore, said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger in Tallahassee, Florida.
“The name of the game is forward speed,” Truchelut said. “At this point, monitoring the motion of Dorian tick by tick using radar, satellite, and aircraft observations will reveal potential changes more meaningfully than model guidance; even a 1 mph faster average speed risks bringing the eyewall of Dorian to the east Florida coastline.”
Hurricanes pack their deadliest winds around the center of the eye. That’s why landfall is so closely monitored because it means the eye has crossed over. Several islands in the Bahamas are in the center of that destructive force.
“A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday,” said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center.
Elbow Cay, where Dorian came ashore was described as having a “New England-meets-the-tropics ambiance,” according to Coastal Living magazine. A Category 5 hurricane will flatten many homes, snap trees and powerlines and leave the area “unihabitable for weeks or months,” the hurricane center said.
Dorian, one of five storms to form in the Atlantic so far this year, menaced the U.S. Virgin Islands last week. The storm is now forecast to drift up the East Coast later this week possibly even coming ashore in eastern North Carolina.
“This marks the fourth consecutive year with a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic,” said Jim Rouiller, chief meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group outside Philadelphia. “We’re entering uncharted territory.”
At a Saturday morning press conference, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis encouraged Floridians not to let their guard down. He said a “bump in one direction or the other” could yet change the likelihood of impact.
“You’re still looking at significant impacts even if the storm remains hugging the coast,” DeSantis said. Storm surges and flooding remained a serious risk, in part because the storm coincides with a periodic event known as king tides, especially high tides which frequently cause flooding in South Florida even on sunny days. Its current projected turn would also bring it close to the St. Lucie nuclear power station, home to two nuclear reactors owned by Nextera Energy Inc.’s subsidiary Florida Power & Light.
In 2016, Hurricane Matthew veered away from Florida without a landfall but still left massive destruction in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina from torrential rains. Even a glancing blow could cost upwards to $7 billion in damage, Chuck Watson, a modeler with Enki Research, said on his blog.
“Don’t make any assumptions, remain vigilant and be prepared,” Governor DeSantis said at the press conference Saturday. “You don’t want to over-read these tracks.”
DeSantis activated 2,500 Florida National Guard troops, and 1,500 more have been told to be prepared, according to a press release Saturday. Dozens of school districts and colleges have announced they’ll close at least through the end of the day Tuesday.
The governor’s office also said that tolls would be lifted in relevant areas to speed traffic if and when evacuations are ordered. Meanwhile, the Florida Highway Patrol is escorting fuel trucks to get supplies where they are needed.
The hurricane center is tracking three other potential storms in the Atlantic. One, near Cabo Verde off Africa, has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next five days. Another, near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, has a 30% chance. A third disturbance has popped up several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...toward-florida
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