Wednesday Baseball Plays

[Tinfish]

3-1 last nite. +$180
Plus $830 this week.

my picks for today are:

Yankees

Abbott pitched well for the Rays allowing the Yankees only 4 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings losing a close one 3-2. But all indications say that Brown may be healthy and back to his old tricks. He has beaten the Rays twice and has thrown 14 innings allowing only 11 hits and no walks. That last stat about walks is the most telling. If his control is there, he is hell to beat. Lot of chalk (-270) but you only pay that if you lose. I figure Brown holds them long enough for the Yankee bats to win it.

White Sox

Garland has pitched well allowing only 4 hits and 2 walks in 8 strong innings. That was against the Yankees big lumber too. Affeldt has not been right since he was hurt last year. He has struggled. His first outing this year he allowed 9 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings and that was to the weak hitting Indians. -150 is a fair number here.

Pittsburgh +1 1/2 (-110)

Clement struggled in his first start allowing 6 hits and 3 walks in only 4 innings. I think the Cubs relief corps is going to be sorely tested early this year which won't help them later in the season. The walks is the reason to bet against Clement here. One an inning will get you killed. Vogelsong I don't care for. he was a reliever that has turned starter. But there is no ignoring the fact that he had a good opener allowing only 6 hits in 7 strong innings. I don't have to win here just stay close.

Florida

Willis at -130 is another of those too good to pass up lines. He started off the season last year tearing the world apart. He faded later in the season somewhat but he may be one of those pitchers that starts very hot. In any event, his first start was a shutout win going 7 2/3 innings and allowing only 5 hits. Ohka is not Montreal's best and he allowed 9 hits in 5 innings in his debut this year. Have to try Willis at this number.

Toronto/Detroit OVER 9 1/2

Lilly allowed 5 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings in his only outing. Robertson actually pitched in relief for 6 innings so far this year and he didn't do very well allowing 3 hits and an incredible 5 walks. Both these teams are pounding the baseball and everything points to an over here.

Cinn +1 1/2 (-130)

Neither pitcher is outstanding but Aceveda was slightly better in his debut allowing only 5 hits in 6 innings. Padilla gave 6 hits in 6 innings and I would evaluate them as much closer but Padilla allowed 3 walks. You will find that walks by a pitcher weighs heavily in my capping. Philly has struggled this year winning only 1 and losing 6. Cinn is playing good solid baseball and their 5-2 record is surprising most experts except they have the best numbers in their bullpen in all of baseball. Solid defense, good starting pitching, good hitting, great relief. I don't know why they are surprised. Will it last the season? I don't care. I just want it to last one more game tonight.

Arizona/Colorado UNDER 12

Neither of these pitchers were more than average last year. They are the same this year so far as Dessens allowed 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Kennedy looks better at 4 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings. I think they are good enough to hold the scoring down here. This is one of those inflated Colo home totals. Betting the under was money at this stadium for me last year and has been for a few years. Careful here though because any under bet involving StL or AZ is risky because their bullpens are the worst I have ever seen in the history of baseball. I think AZ has some offensive problems this year though so I will try it under.

[hitmansb]

(Sports Network) - Barry Bonds may need a day of rest after reaching monumental heights in his home run chase the last two games. Giants manager Felipe Alou will probably give his slugger that break as San Francisco goes for a three-game sweep of their series against the Milwaukee Brewers at SBC Park.

Last night, Bonds hit career homer No. 661 to move into sole possession of third place on the all-time list in San Francisco's 4-2 victory over Milwaukee. With the solo blast in the seventh inning, Bonds moved past his godfather, Willie Mays. It was the second straight game Bonds homered into McCovey Cove and the solo blast in the seventh inning off Ben Ford sent the home crowd into another frenzy.

The 39-year-old Bonds, who owns the single-season home run record of 73 set during the 2001 season, now has only two players standing in front of him.

Babe Ruth is second with 714 home runs and Hank Aaron tops the list with 755.

"Now I can go out and go after the next thing," Bonds said. "Itā??s a little more pressure when you know heā??s (Mays) there waiting for you." Bonds ended 2-for-3 with a walk. He has found his swing again following a dismal stretch of going 3-for-16 following his first homer of the season last Monday in Houston.

On Monday, Bonds hit his second home run of the season with a fifth-inning shot off Matt Kinney in the Giants' home opener.

Marquis Grissom drove in three runs on a pair of homers last night for the Giants, who have won three straight.

Junior Spivey drove in two runs for Milwaukee, which has lost three straight.

Scott Podsednik had three hits for the Brewers.

Wayne Franklin is the likely starter today for the Giants. The lefthander, who pitched for Milwaukee in 2002 and last season, has thrown three games in relief for the Giants this year. Last season, Franklin compiled a 10-13 mark in 36 games (34 starts) for Milwaukee and had a 5.50 ERA. He has five career relief appearances against the Brewers, but doesn't have a decision.

Wes Obermueller will take the hill for Milwaukee this afternoon. The righthander, who makes his first career appearance versus San Francisco, suffered the loss in his first start on Friday in the Brewers' home opener. He allowed five runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings of a loss against Houston.

The Giants have beaten the Brewers in 12 of the last 14 matchups.


***I like the Giants -132. Not too much chalk, and San Fran should beat these bums even if (and that's a big IF, as guys in a good hitting zone don't usually like to be rested at home).***

[hitmansb]

Dammit...if only they'd pitched to Barry when he pinch-hit. It woulda been a tie game...and then who knows?