2008 Is Starting Again - Stock Market Crash Incoming

[Bouncer]

Pending Home Sales Slump For 7th Straight Month As "Overheated Real Estate Markets" Start To Drop

Amid its "broadest slowdown in years" the US housing market faces prices for starter homes at the highest they have been since 2008, just prior to the collapse of the housing market, and August is confirming that prices are indeed becoming an issue.

Following the drop in Existing- and New-home sales (as well as another drop in mortgage apps), Pending-home sales missed expectations dramatically, dropping 0.7% MoM in July (+0.3% exp).





Full Article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-markets-start

[Bouncer]

Stock markets hitting all time highs and housing market in decline.. this shit is gonna make 2008 seem like a simple consolidation.. This is the tipping point. Anyone in the stock market right now should follow the obvious but often forgotten rule to sell high and buy low... Once it crashes these highs will take a long time to return..

All time highs are NOT a time to celebrate if you are a holder.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the stock market will crash tomorrow. It may continue to rise for awhile. But make no mistake, this bubble will pop in the near future.

[Bouncer]

Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet

[Bouncer]

Pro trader Alessio Rastani and billionaire investor Jim Rogers give warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHYIdcmmZJI

[Bouncer]

All the signs are there but the stock market keeps keeps going up just like early 2007 The DJ Real Estate index is at almost identical numbers as it was in 2007 leading up to the big crash in 2008.

[chuckz28]

This isn't an issue until delinquency rates go up. They have been on steep decline ever since then. Far less subprime mortgages and people are paying on time. Here is a chart for delinquency rates. That's your key indicator.

[Bouncer]

prices keep rising bro. insane bubble in all the big cities. companies buying back there own stocks. this is a bubble just as bad as bitcoin last december. it's got to pop and the longer it goes on the bigger the pop will be.

[chuckz28]

Isolated bubbles. My home value hasn't even risen above what it was when I bought it in 2005 yet.

[Bouncer]

Isolated bubbles. My home value hasn't even risen above what it was when I bought it in 2005 yet.

You live in ohier brah. I'm talking about places that matter to the economy. :D

Sent from my Moto G6 using Tapatalk

[Bouncer]

Disaster Is Inevitable When America's Stock Market Bubble Bursts

Despite the volatility and brief correction earlier this year, the U.S. stock market is back to making record highs in the past couple weeks. To many observers, this market now seems downright bulletproof as it keeps going higher and higher as it has for nearly a decade in direct defiance of the naysayers' warnings. Unfortunately, this unusual market strength is not evidence of a strong, organic economy, but of an extremely unhealthy, artificial bubble economy that will end in a crisis that will be even worse than we experienced in 2008. In this report, I will show a wide variety of charts that prove how unsustainable the current bull market is.

Full Article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco.../#5402cff71b82

[mofo]

House prices are relatively low in my area compared to where they were pre-2008 crash and we have some of the most expensive real estate in the country in my neck of the woods. While the economy is definitely unstable, it’s not on levels like 2008.

[Bouncer]

House prices are relatively low in my area compared to where they were pre-2008 crash and we have some of the most expensive real estate in the country in my neck of the woods. While the economy is definitely unstable, it’s not on levels like 2008.

you guys need to look past your backyards. major cities worldwide are experiencing major housing bubbles never seen in history.

[Bouncer]

The End Of Cheap Debt: The Fall & Rise Of Interest Rates

Total debt (public + private) in America is currently at a staggering $67 trillion.

That number has been rising fast over the past 47 years, following the US dollar's transformation into a fully-fiat currency in August of 1971.

Perhaps this wouldn't be such a big concern were America's income, measured by GDP, growing at a similar rate. But it's not.

Growth in debt has far outpaced GDP, as evidenced by this chart:



In 1971, the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 1.48x. That's roughly the same multiple it had averaged over the prior century.

But today? That ratio has spiked to to 3.47x, more than doubling over just 4 decades.

There are many troubling conclusions to draw from this, but here's a simple way to look at it: It's taking more and more debt to eke out a unit of GDP growth.

Put in other words: the US economic engine is seizing up, requiring increasingly more effort to function.

At some point -- quite possibly some point soon -- the economy will no longer be able to grow because all of its output must be used to service the ballooning debt load rather than future investment.

Accelerating this point of reckoning are two major recent trends: rising interest rates and the end of global QE.

Why? Because much of the recent explosion in debt has been fueled by central bank policy:

Interest rates have been on a steady decline since the 1980s, making debt increasingly cheaper to issue and to service.

Since 2008, central banks have been voracious buyers of debt. Countries/companies have been able to borrow $trillions, enabled (both directly and indirectly) by these "buyers of last resort".

But both of those trends are ending, fast.

Interest rates have been rising off of their all-time rock-bottom lows over the past two years. While still low by historic standards, the rise is certainly material enough already to make the US' $70 trillion in total debt more expensive to service, putting an even greater weight on America's already-burdened economy.

And all indicators point to even higher rates ahead; with the Federal Reserve expected to increase the federal funds rate another 50% by 2020:



These higher rates make the US debt overhang even more expensive to service, while also forcing valuations downwards for major asset classes like bonds, housing and equities (the prices of which are derived in part by interest rates, as explained here).

These higher expected rates also co-incide with the cessation of global quantitative easing (QE). The world's major central banks have announced that they will cease making purchases by 2020:



Without these indiscriminate buyers-of-last-resort, debt issuers will need to offer higher rates to entice the next marginal buyer. How much higher will rates need to rise as a result? It's pretty easy to make the argument for "a lot".

[chuckz28]

you guys need to look past your backyards. major cities worldwide are experiencing major housing bubbles never seen in history.

Right but people can still afford it. When they can't anymore is when we will get trouble. Problem coming potentially yes but not at this moment.

I think we're beginning to see rising wages. Right now there are more jobs than people able to fill them and companies are starting to offer more pay to incite hiring vs their competitors. If this keeps up we will see wages really explode. This will push the bubble pop further out.

[Bouncer]

Right but people can still afford it. When they can't anymore is when we will get trouble. Problem coming potentially yes but not at this moment.

I think we're beginning to see rising wages. Right now there are more jobs than people able to fill them and companies are starting to offer more pay to incite hiring vs their competitors. If this keeps up we will see wages really explode. This will push the bubble pop further out.

Read the first post in this thread bro. It's not specifically what you are talking about but it points towards a trend reversal.

I'm not saying it's all gonna crash on Monday. But I think we are very much at the tipping point.

Sent from my Moto G6 using Tapatalk