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Originally posted by Bouncer
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I actually just use it for certain purchases and just have a small amount in there for this specifically. I went to make an order and saw a large chunk had disappeared lol -
Even as it crashes there is huge money making opportunity. When a stock or crypto crashes there is always surges back up as relief rallies as it crashes long term.Originally posted by redback View Post
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just a heads up for those following stocks and particularly those interested in hedges against a falling stock market. it's an ETF, the stock ticker is SQQQ. In simple terms it shorts the stock market aka bets against it. while the stock market falls and people get wrecked you profit.
if your interested here's the details.
https://www.investopedia.com/article...rt-qqq-etf.asp
the chart on this thing is epic. because it does the opposite of the stock market it's basically been in a free fall since 2011. the chart below is the weekly chart so each candle = 1 week. as you can see big volume is just now starting to come in at the bottom of the chart. this is the definition of "catching the bottom". this etf has the potential to easily 5x in the next few months alone.
there has basically been zero interest in this ETF as you can tell by the volume. as the stock market has been in a 10 year bullrun nobody has been interested in betting against it. but the last 2 months has seen 10x volume come in. do your own research guys but i'm telling you, this is one to fucken watch. the FAANG stocks have been a large part of the bull run and those FAANG stocks are showing huge cracks..
You can do the same thing with crude oil btw... the stock ticker for that ETF short is DWT.Comment
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Temp pop up because the fed backed down from Trump. There is a reason rates need to be increased. Nothing has changed.Originally posted by chuckz28 View Post
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I hope they stay close to where they are at for about 6 more months so I can get a decent rate on my mortgage next year.Originally posted by Bouncer View PostComment
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Bouncer if you are so smart tell us what to invest inComment
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I have been. Read 3-4 posts up asswipe.Originally posted by redback View Post
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Deutsche Bank Is Losing Control
A police raid adds to the sense that nobody appears to be in charge.
To say that Deutsche Bank AG is a basket case is obvious. The once-mighty German investment bank has racked up three straight years of losses, bled market share and destroyed 19 billion euros ($21.6 billion) of shareholder value in five years. Its inability to adapt to a post-crisis world has been astonishing.
But the latest events at the bank – Thursday's raid by German authorities in a money-laundering probe and reports of an imminent destabilizing management reshuffle by CEO Christian Sewing – suggest that we have sunk to new low in terms of institutional and operational stability.
Whoever is nominally in charge – and surely the chain of accountability reaches well beyond Sewing and into the boardroom where Chairman Paul Achleitner sits – appears to have lost control.
A bank lives or dies by its risk management, and there's little evidence that Deutsche has a sufficiently tight leash on it. The latest raid is a red flag, but only one of many. Deutsche has been linked to a probe into Denmark's Danske Bank A/S, through which $230 billion in suspect funds were funneled. Separately, the German lender was fined almost $700 million last year for helping wealthy Russians move money out of the country. It is scrambling to improve its compliance controls.
Deutsche Bank's traders appear prone to eye-popping missteps, too. Last week, Bloomberg reported that the bank had lost $60 million this year on a bet that was supposed to both avert losses and make money. It's reminiscent of a similar loss linked to bets on U.S. inflation Bloomberg reported on back in 2017, when John Cryan was still CEO. And the less said about the lender's incredible, accidental, $35 billion flub in April – hastily reversed – the better.
Instead of trying to impose order and stability, the board and executives somehow keep doing the opposite. Cryan's efforts in trying to keep the Deutsche ship afloat were rewarded with a messy and hasty expulsion by the board. Now it seems the same thing is happening to senior executives: Chief Regulatory Officer Sylvie Matherat and U.S. chief Tom Patrick are said to be on the way out. Investment-bank head Garth Ritchie's job is also at risk amid concerns about his performance, according to the Financial Times.
All of this is obviously damaging for Deutsche's shares, which have plumbed new record lows, as well as its bonds. It's not hard to understand why: ever-changing management and faulty risk controls don't help to win more business.
If Chairman Achleitner and the supervisory board want to stop the rot, let alone return to growth, there needs to be a semblance of institutional control. A serious halt to risk-management blow-ups, however costly, would be worth it, as would a calmer approach to pushing out executives trying to implement an already difficult strategy. The more heads change at the management level, the more investors will wonder if they should change at board level.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...n?srnd=premiumComment
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Originally posted by chuckz28 View Post
you think Trump and Ping will come to some sort of agreement on Sat? if no deal we will see a pretty big market slump starting on Monday IMO.Comment
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I doubt it. Trump is too hard headed to give any concession on trade deals. I bet the next president will have to deal with it. Only way is if the other guy bends over and takes it.Comment
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add to that a guy that will be at the table on the American side is one of china's biggest critics and has written a few books just ripping china apart. so that doesn't exactly help. lolOriginally posted by chuckz28 View Post
but trump also knows that further escalation of a trade war will hurt the economy and that is obviously bad for him.
i think they are going to come out with some vague statement about "moving forward" and "positive talks" but nothing on china's end will really change.Comment
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Investors on Edge After Rocky Month for Markets
Stocks remain well below highs from earlier this year, and crude oil takes hit from slowing global growth
Investors are heading into the final month of 2018 apprehensively, as shaky trading in everything from stocks to bonds to oil to bitcoin has tempered expectations for gains in the months to come.
U.S. stocks stabilized in November after a punishing autumn rout but remain well below the highs they hit earlier in the year. Crude oil briefly slid below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than a year, hurt by worries about a potential supply glut as well as slowing global growth. And the 10-year Treasury yield—a barometer for global finance—is on the verge of falling below 3% again after comments from the Federal Reserve’s chairman triggered bets on the central bank raising rates more gradually than expected.
To many, the twists and turns across markets reflect the increasingly cloudy outlook facing investors.
Much remains up in the air. The U.S. and China, set to meet at the Group of 20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires this weekend, are still mired in a trade fight. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December but looks more uncertain about its pace of rate increases next year. And the outlook for global growth appears uneven after a synchronized expansion around the world helped lift stocks from New York to Japan and Hong Kong to multiyear highs in 2017.
“It’s been certainly a roller-coaster year,” said Andrew Braun, portfolio manager for large cap funds at investment firm Pax World Funds. “Investors are starting to focus on just how difficult the next quarter, and then the following three or four quarters, will be relative to how good we’ve had it.”
Major indexes initially drifted between small gains and losses Friday before rallying into the close.
One factor driving the rebound was a rally in so-called defensive sectors, whose relatively hefty dividend payouts tend to draw investors during volatile trading stretches. Shares of real-estate companies in the S&P 500 finished up 5.3% on the month, nearly tripling the broader index’s gains. That is despite a fresh streak of data in November showing new-home sales posting their steepest decline since 2017 and the pace of home-price gains slowing.
Few predict a recession is on the horizon. The Commerce Department said this week that it estimated the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter, moderating from the second quarter but extending what has been the second-longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
Yet increasingly tepid reports on the housing sector—alongside data showing domestic auto sales sputtering—are adding to many investors’ sense that, beneath a strong U.S. economy, fault lines are growing.
Another worry for investors: the extended slump in technology shares, which found little reprieve in November while many other sectors rallied.
Apple Inc. shed 18%, posting its worst month in more than a decade, as investors grew skittish about signs of softening demand for the firm’s iPhone. The declines helped Microsoft on Friday unseat Apple as the largest U.S. company by market capitalization, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The slide in technology shares, which analysts say has been fueled by nervousness about slowing sales, as well as valuations, is troubling investors; some question how much further stocks can climb in the absence of the sector’s leadership. It also removes a major source of support for U.S. stocks, which have managed to hang onto their gains for the year despite fading enthusiasm for risk-taking among investors across a variety of markets.
Bitcoin has tumbled below $5,000 after surging at the start of the year. Emerging markets from Turkey to Argentina to China remain in a slump, hurt by the strengthening dollar, as well as signs of slowing growth.
Investors spot at least one silver lining. After Mr. Powell’s November remarks, many believe the Fed will raise rates more gradually than they had earlier expected, potentially easing pressure on markets that have struggled as monetary policy has tightened. Bets on a more dovish Fed helped send the Dow up more than 600 points Wednesday, wiping out the blue-chip index’s losses for the month.
Yet the momentum behind that rally proved to be short-lived, with stocks drifting between gains and losses by the end of the week. And many caution that the Fed’s rate path remains up for debate.
Some Fed officials have indicated they would want to see evidence that the labor market is stalling before deciding to pause rate increases. Investors may get more clarity on the central bank’s rate plans in the coming weeks, when Mr. Powell testifies before the U.S. Senate and the Federal Open Market Committee holds its final policy meeting of the year.
“We have a higher level of uncertainty” when it comes to trade, the path of interest rates and global growth, said Ken Monaghan, co-head of high yield at Amundi Pioneer. Tumbling oil prices and fractious politics, like Brexit negotiations between the U.K. and European Union, add to the murky outlook for global markets, he said.
“When uncertainty goes up, investors require a higher return,” Mr. Monaghan said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-...d=hp_lead_pos1Comment
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Investors are staring at the bleakest future since the Great Depression
There's never been a worse time to be a conventional portfolio manager.
Well, maybe back in the deepest, darkest throes of the Great Depression that crushed the US economy way back in 1929. But not for the past 90-or-so years.
At least that's what John Hussman thinks. The former economics professor and current president of the Hussman Investment Trust has crunched the numbers and found that the future looks historically bleak for investors who aim for a traditionally diversified mix of holdings.
His methodology looks at a portfolio with 60% invested in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills — and it's designed to assess the expected total return over a forward 12-year horizon.
Hussman finds that at the stock market's all-time peak in September, this mix of investments was set to produce total returns of just 0.48% over that 12-year period. As you can see below — as signified by the blue line — that's the lowest since the Great Depression era of 1929.
Even though bond yields recently climbed and US stocks took a 10% hit, Hussman notes that the expected return climbed to just 1.29%, still Great Depression lows. This fact shows just how far stretched the market is right now — and reinforces the degree to which it must drop to make future returns more appealing.
To that end, Hussman calculates that, in order to achieve a 10% expected return with that portfolio mix, the S&P 500 would have to plummet by roughly 60%. That would be a brutal reckoning that would rank among the biggest and most catastrophic in history.
"Notice that the completion of every market cycle has served to restore normal prospective market returns, which is routinely accomplished by sharp losses in security prices," Hussman wrote in a recent blog post.
One element of that collapse would be a possible crisis in pension funds, which are notable for their low risk thresholds and long-term scope. Hussman notes that they usually assume future returns of 7%, which is far above his current forecasts. If they're making just a fraction of that, it could spur panic.
The Fed's role in creating this mess
So how did the market end up in this situation? Hussman places a lot of blame on the Federal Reserve, whose monetary easing practices he says have produced unsustainable conditions.
But his issue with the Fed stems far beyond current chair Jerome Powell, who has been stuck with the unenviable task of normalizing interest rates back to historical levels. He thinks previous Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are more culpable, having created what he calls a "yield-seeking carnival of speculation."
By lowering interest rates to near zero, the Fed made it so companies — even those with highly questionable credit profiles — could have easy access to debt financing, says Hussman. Those firms then used that money to make splashy acquisitions, reinvest, and buy back shares. In the end, it helped push stocks to new all-time highs.
But Hussman prefers to look at it differently. He says those records were accompanied by valuations reaching their "most offensive extremes in history." He's no fan of the short-sighted policy decisions that create this situation, and he expects the fallout to be sharp and brutal.
"In the Federal Reserve's attempt to bring the US out of the crisis of its own making, the Fed has produced conditions that make another collapse inevitable," said Hussman. "Unfortunately, the scale of the present bubble is far grander, and the consequences are likely to be more severe."
He continued: "By the completion of this cycle, I continue to expect the S&P 500 to lose roughly two-thirds of the market capitalization it reached at its Sept. 20 peak."
Hussman's track record
For the uninitiated, Hussman has repeatedly made headlines by predicting a stock-market decline exceeding 60% and forecasting a full decade of negative equity returns. And as the stock market has continued to grind mostly higher, he's persisted with his calls, undeterred.
But before you dismiss Hussman as a wonky perma-bear, consider his track record, which he breaks down in his latest blog post. Here are the arguments he lays out:
*Predicted in March 2000 that tech stocks would plunge 83%, then the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index lost an "improbably precise" 83% during a period from 2000 to 2002
*Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did
*Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009
In the end, the more evidence Hussman unearths around the stock market's unsustainable conditions, the more worried investors should get. Sure, there may still be returns to be realized in this market cycle, but at what point does the mounting risk of a crash become too unbearable?
https://www.businessinsider.com/next...ussman-2018-11Comment
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Has it crashed yet?Comment
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